Ball State @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2023)

Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Kentucky

Weather at kickoff81°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Ball State

0-0 · Power #113

final

Final

Kentucky

0-0 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

UK -25

✓ UK W

Total

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 17–37 UK

✓ UK (93%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUK -25

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUK -25

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUK -25

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like UK as a 25-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 0 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: UK won 44–14; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 5 similar games. 58 points went over 49, as in 0 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

0 of 50%

Below normal · usually 56%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 19 against an average line of 21.6; 37.4 points a game (usually 56.6). When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	ARMY vs ULM 2020 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread	-24	37–7	W	U53.5
Loose	MSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation	-21.75	35–13	W	U54.5
Loose	CIN vs USF 2020 · Week 5 · loose	-22	28–7	L	U45.5
Loose	MRSH vs FAU 2020 · Week 8 · loose · similar total	-19	20–9	L	U51
Loose	PITT vs SYR 2020 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & situation	-21	21–10	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL	0-0	—	—	—
UK	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL	0-0	—	0-0
UK	0-0	—	0-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 92 FBS teams

BALL

Longer bar = better

#79

Offense

UK better ▶

#36

#71

Defense

UK better ▶

#31

−1.0 #73

Turnovers

UK better ▶

+1.0 #30

71 plays #28

Pace

◀ BALL faster

51 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: UK defense

	BALL off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #79	14.0 #34	UK
Yards / play	4.15 #84	4.15 #24	UK
PPA / play	−0.07 #80	−0.07 #28	UK
Success rate	35% #73	35% #39	UK

When UK has the ball

Advantage: UK offense

	UK off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #20	44.0 #82	UK
Yards / play	6.94 #25	6.94 #77	UK
PPA / play	+0.20 #42	+0.20 #69	UK
Success rate	40% #58	40% #56	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.