Sat, Aug 26, 2023, 9:10 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Vanderbilt
Closing spread
VAN -17
✓ HAW W
Total
54.5
▲ Over · 63 pts
Model before kickoff
HAW 20–34 VAN
✓ VAN (85%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseVAN -17
Total54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseVAN -17
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close54.5
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseVAN -17
Total54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
VAN as a 17-point home favorite against HAW, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.
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This game: VAN won 35–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 54.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 86%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 49%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.2 against an average line of 16.5; 52.4 points a game (usually 55.7). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  JMU vs  CCU2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread |
-15.5 | 47–7 | W | O53 |
| Very close |  MRSH vs  FAU2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-19 | 20–9 | L | U51 |
| Very close |  AFA vs  COLO2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-17.5 | 41–10 | W | O50 |
| Close |  WSU vs  CSU2022 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation |
-17 | 38–7 | W | U52.25 |
| Close |  ASU vs WSU2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread |
-16.5 | 21–34 | L | O54.5 |
| Close |  NEB vs  BUFF2021 · Week 2 · close · similar total |
-13.5 | 28–3 | W | U54.5 |
| Close |  BSU vs  USU2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total |
-17 | 42–13 | W | O51.5 |
| Close |  MSST vs  MEM2022 · Week 1 · close · similar spread & situation |
-17 | 49–23 | W | O58 |
| Close |  USC vs  STAN2021 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total |
-17.5 | 28–42 | L | O53.5 |
| Close | WSU vs  ARIZ2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total |
-14.75 | 44–18 | W | O52.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Hawai'i have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
VAN +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
77° · 1 mph
gusts 10 mph · 0.205 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
HAW1st game
VAN1st game
Even
Travel
HAW 4,331 mi
5 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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