Utah State @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2023)

Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Iowa

Weather at kickoff79°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Utah State

0-0 · Power #100

final

Final

Iowa

0-0 · Power #54

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -24

✓ USU W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 16–36 IOWA

✓ IOWA (92%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -24

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIOWA -24

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -24

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like IOWA as a 24-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 3, covered 0, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 24–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 3 similar games. 38 points stayed under 43.5, as in 3 of 3.

Favorite won

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

0 of 30%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

0 of 30%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 14.3 against an average line of 20.7; 31.7 points a game (usually 55.3). When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CIN vs USF 2020 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & spread	-22	28–7	L	U45.5
Loose	PITT vs SYR 2020 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-21	21–10	L	U47
Loose	MRSH vs FAU 2020 · Week 8 · loose	-19	20–9	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU	0-0	—	—	—
IOWA	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU	0-0	—	0-0
IOWA	0-0	—	0-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 92 FBS teams

USU

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#75

Offense

Even

#75

#37

Defense

Even

#39

−1.0 #72

Turnovers

IOWA better ▶

+1.0 #29

72 plays #23

Pace

◀ USU faster

69 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	USU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #78	14.0 #33	IOWA
Yards / play	4.57 #76	4.57 #38	IOWA
PPA / play	−0.06 #78	−0.06 #35	IOWA
Success rate	38% #66	38% #50	IOWA

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: USU defense

	IOWA off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #59	24.0 #57	Even
Yards / play	4.12 #85	4.12 #22	USU
PPA / play	+0.01 #69	+0.01 #47	USU
Success rate	32% #85	32% #20	USU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.