Nebraska @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2023)

Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F10 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Nebraska

0-0 · Power #62

final

Final

Minnesota

0-0 · Power #79

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -6.5

✓ NEB W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

NEB 23–29 MINN

✓ MINN (66%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -6.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMINN -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -6.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 6.5-point home favorite against NEB, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MINN won 13–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.5 against an average line of 6.2; 58.3 points a game (usually 54.6).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TULN vs TEM 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.75	38–3	W	U57.5
Very close	HOU vs TULN 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-5.5	24–27	L	U52
Very close	HOU vs TULN 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	49–31	W	O58.25
Very close	NEB vs IU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	35–21	W	U61.75
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Very close	TOL vs CMU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	38–17	W	U56
Very close	SYR vs BC 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	21–6	W	U51.5
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Very close	OKST vs KSU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6	31–20	W	O47.5
Very close	LOU vs FSU 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	48–16	W	O62.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB	0-0	—	—	—
MINN	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: NEB away, as underdog; MINN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB	0-0	—	0-0
MINN	0-0	—	0-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 30 FBS teams

NEB

Longer bar = better

MINN

#22

Offense

◀ NEB better

#27

Defense

◀ NEB better

#12

−3.0 #30

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+3.0 #3

56 plays #25

Pace

MINN faster ▶

69 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	NEB off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	10.0 #28	10.0 #5	MINN
Yards / play	5.27 #19	5.27 #16	Even
PPA / play	−0.22 #30	−0.22 #1	MINN
Success rate	48% #11	48% #25	NEB

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	MINN off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #26	13.0 #9	NEB
Yards / play	3.64 #28	3.64 #5	NEB
PPA / play	−0.04 #27	−0.04 #8	NEB
Success rate	33% #27	33% #8	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.