Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Wisconsin
Closing spread
WIS -29
✓ BUFF W
Total
52.5
▲ Over · 55 pts
Model before kickoff
BUFF 13–37 WIS
✓ WIS (96%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseWIS -29
Total52.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseWIS -29
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close52.5
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseWIS -29
Total52.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for 
WIS as a 29-point home favorite against BUFF. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Buffalo have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 92 FBS teams
BUFFLonger bar = better
WIS#73
Offense
WIS better ▶#37
#72
Defense
WIS better ▶#40
+2.0 #15
Turnovers
◀ BUFF better−2.0 #86
71 plays #30
Pace
Even71 plays #29
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When BUFF has the ball| BUFF off | WIS def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 17.0 #74 | 17.0 #44 | WIS |
| Yards / play | 4.45 #78 | 4.45 #36 | WIS |
| PPA / play | −0.11 #85 | −0.11 #22 | WIS |
| Success rate | 41% #54 | 41% #59 | Even |
When WIS has the ball| WIS off | BUFF def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 38.0 #32 | 38.0 #75 | WIS |
| Yards / play | 7.08 #22 | 7.08 #80 | WIS |
| PPA / play | +0.16 #44 | +0.16 #67 | WIS |
| Success rate | 42% #50 | 42% #64 | WIS |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
WIS +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
88° · 13 mph
gusts 24 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
BUFF1st game
WIS1st game
Even
Tempo
Fast 142 plays
slowavg 134fast
Schedules, links & other games
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