Fri, Sep 1, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Miami
Closing spread
MIA -17.5
✓ MIA W
Total
—
Model before kickoff
M-OH 19–33 MIA
✓ MIA (85%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseMIA -17.5
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseMIA -17.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close—
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseMIA -17.5
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
MIA as a 17.5-point home favorite against M-OH, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: MIA won 38–3; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 85%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.3 against an average line of 16.8; 49.9 points a game (usually 56.1).
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  MRSH vs  FAU2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread |
-19 | 20–9 | L | U51 |
| Close |  AFA vs  COLO2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation |
-17.5 | 41–10 | W | O50 |
| Close |  JMU vs  CCU2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread |
-15.5 | 47–7 | W | O53 |
| Close |  BSU vs  USU2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread |
-17 | 42–13 | W | O51.5 |
| Loose |  WAKE vs  LIB2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & situation |
-17.5 | 37–36 | L | O64 |
| Loose |  NEB vs  BUFF2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation |
-13.5 | 28–3 | W | U54.5 |
| Loose |  ARIZ vs COLO2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread |
-17.75 | 43–20 | W | O58 |
| Loose |  WSU vs  CSU2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & situation |
-17 | 38–7 | W | U52.25 |
| Loose |  ASU vs WSU2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread |
-16.5 | 21–34 | L | O54.5 |
| Loose |  NEV vs USU2020 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread |
-17 | 34–9 | W | U57.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Miami (OH) have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
MIA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
81° · 9 mph
gusts 17 mph · 0.02 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
M-OH1st game
MIA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
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