Texas A&M @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Miami

Weather at kickoff85°F6 mphgusts 15Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Texas A&M

1-0 · Power #17

final

Final

Miami

1-0 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -3

✓ MIA W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 81 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 26–24 MIA

✗ TA&M (55%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTA&M -3

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTA&M -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTA&M -3

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 3-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 48–33 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 81 points went over 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 3.3; 57.1 points a game (usually 54.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	PITT @ TENN 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3.5	41–34	W	O56
Loose	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3	16–31	L	U53
Loose	UTAH @ FLA 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-2.5	26–29	L	O51.5
Loose	MINN @ MSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & total	-3	34–7	W	U50
Loose	MICH @ NEB 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & spread	-2.5	32–29	W	O50
Loose	ASU @ BYU 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & total	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Loose	CIN @ ND 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & spread	-2	24–13	W	U50
Loose	TENN @ SC 2020 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & situation	-4	31–27	P	O45
Loose	PSU @ PUR 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3.5	35–31	W	O53.5
Loose	CLEM @ ND 2020 · Week 10 · loose · similar total & rest	-5	40–47	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
MIA W	1-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: TA&M away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M O	1-0	100%	1-0
MIA –	0-0	—	1-0

Went over in Q3. Of 22 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&Mlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	1-0 100%
MIAlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TA&M 2–4 MIA MIA leads · 6 games since 1944 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

TA&M

Longer bar = better

MIA

#24

Offense

Even

#27

#50

Defense

MIA better ▶

#18

+1.0 #43

Turnovers

◀ TA&M better

−1.0 #94

63 plays #94

Pace

Even

61 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Even matchup

	TA&M off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	52.0 #14	3.0 #4	Even
Yards / play	6.52 #43	4.39 #43	Even
PPA / play	+0.59 #8	−0.25 #15	Even
Success rate	52% #32	21% #10	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #41	10.0 #32	Even
Yards / play	8.08 #12	3.70 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.44 #20	+0.03 #67	MIA
Success rate	52% #33	40% #82	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.