Notre Dame @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at NC State

Weather at kickoff77°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Notre Dame

2-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

NC State

1-0 · Power #38

final

Closing spread

ND -7

✓ ND W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 28–22 NCSU

✓ ND (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -7

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseND -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -7

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 7-point road favorite at NCSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 45–24; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 49.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 5.1; 48 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ IU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & situation	-4	38–24	W	O50
Close	UAB @ LIB 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation	-6	14–21	L	U50
Close	MINN @ MSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-3	34–7	W	U50
Close	WISC @ MICH 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-7	49–11	W	O51.5
Loose	LSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & rest	-8	21–17	L	U44.5
Loose	UTAH @ BYU 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & total	-7	17–26	L	U50
Loose	ASU @ BYU 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & situation	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Loose	PITT @ VT 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread	-6.25	28–7	W	U55.75
Loose	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	16–31	L	U53
Loose	PITT @ TENN 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	41–34	W	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ND WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0
NCSU L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: ND away, as favorite; NCSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND –O	1-0	100%	2-0
NCSU –	0-0	—	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 15 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 40% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NDlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	1-0 100%
NCSUlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ND 3–2 NCSU ND leads · 5 games since 2002 · ND has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

Longer bar = better

NCSU

Offense

◀ ND better

#64

#23

Defense

◀ ND better

#72

+0.5 #52

Turnovers

NCSU better ▶

+1.0 #25

60 plays #108

Pace

NCSU faster ▶

72 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	49.0 #16	14.0 #42	ND
Yards / play	8.34 #11	5.15 #73	ND
PPA / play	+0.73 #3	+0.09 #84	ND
Success rate	69% #6	42% #89	ND

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	NCSU off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #80	3.0 #6	ND
Yards / play	5.06 #94	2.88 #4	ND
PPA / play	+0.15 #71	−0.11 #34	ND
Success rate	60% #11	34% #46	NCSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.