Southern Miss @ Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 8:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Florida State

Weather at kickoff77°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

1-0 · Power #121

final

Final

Florida State

1-0 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

FSU -31

✓ FSU W

Total

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 16–43 FSU

✓ FSU (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -31

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM W	1-0	100%	—	—
FSU W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: USM away, as underdog; FSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM O	1-0	100%	1-0
FSU –	0-0	—	1-0

Went over in Q3. Of 32 earlier overs in games with totals 50–58, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USMlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	1-0 100%
FSUlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

USM

Longer bar = better

FSU

#95

Offense

FSU better ▶

#30

#89

Defense

FSU better ▶

#58

0.0 #83

Turnovers

FSU better ▶

+1.0 #39

66 plays #77

Pace

Even

68 plays #65

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Advantage: FSU defense

	USM off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #87	18.5 #53	FSU
Yards / play	5.34 #97	5.69 #93	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #69	−0.01 #49	Even
Success rate	32% #127	35% #36	FSU

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FSU offense

	FSU off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	55.5 #6	40.0 #125	FSU
Yards / play	7.76 #10	6.96 #127	FSU
PPA / play	+0.36 #25	+0.13 #90	FSU
Success rate	43% #79	31% #14	USM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.