Sun, Sep 3, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · Neutral site
Closing spread
LSU -2.5
✓ FSU W
Total
—
Model before kickoff
LSU 28–26 FSU
✗ LSU (56%) lost
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseLSU -2.5
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseLSU -2.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close—
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseLSU -2.5
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
LSU as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against FSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: FSU won 45–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 47%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 3.1; 50.5 points a game (usually 54.7).
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close | 2021 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-2.5 | 21–38 | L | U63 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-2.5 | 14–21 | L | U37.5 |
| Very close | 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3.5 | 21–19 | L | U51 |
| Very close | 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-2.5 | 20–30 | L | U61.5 |
| Very close | 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-4 | 36–21 | W | O55.5 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-3 | 24–7 | W | U54 |
| Very close | 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3.75 | 23–44 | L | O58 |
| Very close | 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-1 | 31–28 | W | O55 |
| Very close | 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-4.5 | 54–10 | W | O55.5 |
| Very close | 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread |
-3.25 | 30–13 | W | U62.75 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
LSU have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
79° · 6 mph
gusts 15 mph · at kickoff
Rest
LSU1st game
FSU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

