Sun, Sep 3, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · Neutral site
Weather at kickoff79°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›
0-0 · Power #10
24
final
Final
vs
0-0 · Power #14
45
▲ winner
Closing spread
LSU -2.5
✓ FSU W
Total
—
 
Model before kickoff
LSU 28–26 FSU
✗ LSU (56%) lost
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseLSU -2.5
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseLSU -2.5
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against FSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: FSU won 45–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 3.1; 50.5 points a game (usually 54.7).

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
HOU vs TTU
2021 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-2.521–38 L U63
Very close
AFA vs ARMY
2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-2.514–21 L U37.5
Very close
TOL vs LIB
2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-3.521–19 L U51
Very close
NEV vs SJSU
2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-2.520–30 L U61.5
Very close
UL vs MRSH
2021 · Postseason · very close · similar team ratings & spread
-436–21 W O55.5
Very close
KSU vs STAN
2021 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation
-324–7 W U54
Very close
USA vs WKU
2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-3.7523–44 L O58
Very close
AFA vs LOU
2021 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-131–28 W O55
Very close
MD vs VT
2021 · Postseason · very close · similar team ratings & spread
-4.554–10 W O55.5
Very close
DUKE vs UCF
2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread
-3.2530–13 W U62.75
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
LSU have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
79° · 6 mph
gusts 15 mph · at kickoff
Rest
LSU1st game
FSU1st game
Even

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week