Sun, Sep 3, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at San José State
Closing spread
ORST -16.5
✓ ORST W
Total
—
Model before kickoff
ORST 33–20 SJSU
✓ ORST (82%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseORST -16.5
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseORST -16.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close—
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseORST -16.5
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
ORST as a 16.5-point road favorite at SJSU, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: ORST won 42–17; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 84%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.2 against an average line of 14.8; 59.6 points a game (usually 55.8).
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |  WAKE @  VAN2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest |
-13.5 | 45–25 | W | O65.25 |
| Close |  CCU @  BUFF2021 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest |
-14 | 28–25 | L | U58 |
| Close |  HOU @  NAVY2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest |
-15.5 | 37–21 | W | O56 |
| Close |  TCU @  COLO2022 · Week 1 · close · similar situation |
-13.5 | 38–13 | W | U59.5 |
| Loose |  BSU @  AFA2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest |
-13.5 | 49–30 | W | O49 |
| Loose |  WKU @  HAW2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation |
-16.5 | 49–17 | W | U67.5 |
| Loose |  USU @  CSU2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest |
-14 | 17–13 | L | U45.5 |
| Loose |  UTAH @  ASU2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest |
-16.75 | 34–13 | W | U54 |
| Loose |  SMU @  TEM2020 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & rest |
-17.25 | 47–23 | W | O63.75 |
| Loose | BSU @ HAW 2020 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest |
-13.5 | 40–32 | L | O55.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Oregon State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
SJSU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
75° · 9 mph
gusts 18 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ORST1st game
SJSU8d
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Oregon Statevs UCD →San José State← @ USC · vs CP →
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