Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Utah
Closing spread
UTAH -8
✓ UTAH W
Total
—
Model before kickoff
FLA 23–30 UTAH
✓ UTAH (71%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseUTAH -8
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseUTAH -8
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close—
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseUTAH -8
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
UTAH as an 8-point home favorite against FLA, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.
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This game: UTAH won 24–11; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games.
Favorite won
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 70%
Favorite covered
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
2 of 1020%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.4 against an average line of 7.8; 42.6 points a game (usually 54.3).
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  APP vs  MRSH2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-7 | 31–30 | L | O59.25 |
| Very close |  AUB vs  MIZ2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-7.5 | 17–14 | L | U51 |
| Very close |  PUR vs  ORST2021 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-7 | 30–21 | W | U68 |
| Very close |  CAL vs  WSU2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-7.5 | 6–21 | L | U52.5 |
| Very close |  BC vs  RUTG2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-9 | 21–22 | L | U47 |
| Very close |  JMU vs MRSH2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-9.5 | 12–26 | L | U48.5 |
| Very close |  TULN vs  MEM2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-7 | 38–28 | W | O55.5 |
| Very close |  NU vs  M-OH2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-7.5 | 14–17 | L | U50 |
| Very close |  ARMY vs M-OH2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-7.5 | 23–10 | W | U48.75 |
| Very close | ARMY vs  GAST2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-8.5 | 14–31 | L | U54 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Utah ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
Green signals have beaten the market in our backtest; yellow ones only describe the data.
Utah at altitude (+1.4 km)
Florida climb about 4,495 ft to play here; visitors have covered less often than the line expects at altitude. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-41 (61%)
Small sample warning
Florida have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
UTAH +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
94° · 7 mph
gusts 16 mph · at kickoff
Rest
FLA1st game
UTAH1st game
Even
Altitude
FLA +4,495 ft
thin air for the visitors
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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