Utah @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Baylor

Weather at kickoff89°F11 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Utah

1-0 · Power #33

▲ winner

Final

Baylor

0-1 · Power #93

final

Closing spread

UTAH -7

Push

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 29–23 BAY

✓ UTAH (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTAH -7

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUTAH -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTAH -7

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 7-point road favorite at BAY, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 20–13; the favorite pushed, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 7.3; 42.8 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SJSU @ FRES 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	10–17	L	U47
Close	ARMY @ BALL 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-10.25	16–28	L	U47.25
Close	MINN @ IU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	35–14	W	O43.25
Loose	SDSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & total	-7	17–10	P	U45.25
Loose	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & rest	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Loose	TROY @ TXST 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & total	-7.5	31–28	L	O48.5
Loose	WISC @ MSU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & rest	-7	28–34	L	O49.5
Loose	CAL @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & total	-7	3–10	L	U47
Loose	WYO @ CSU 2020 · Week 10 · loose	-3.5	24–34	L	O53.5
Loose	MIA @ VT 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & rest	-9	20–14	L	U48.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
BAY L	0-1	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: UTAH away, as favorite; BAY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH –	0-0	—	1-0
BAY –	0-0	—	0-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	0-0 —
BAYlast 1	0-1 0%	0-1 0%	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UTAH

Longer bar = better

BAY

#94

Offense

BAY better ▶

#66

#50

Defense

◀ UTAH better

#108

+1.0 #26

Turnovers

◀ UTAH better

0.0 #69

53 plays #123

Pace

BAY faster ▶

76 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Even matchup

	UTAH off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #81	42.0 #119	UTAH
Yards / play	5.09 #92	6.39 #109	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #84	+0.36 #118	UTAH
Success rate	32% #120	41% #84	BAY

When BAY has the ball

Even matchup

	BAY off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #67	11.0 #33	UTAH
Yards / play	6.89 #35	5.32 #82	BAY
PPA / play	+0.15 #72	−0.08 #43	UTAH
Success rate	39% #90	34% #43	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.