UCF @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Boise State

Weather at kickoff88°F0 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

UCF

1-0 · Power #31

▲ winner

Final

Boise State

0-1 · Power #48

final

Closing spread

UCF -3

✓ BOIS W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 36–29 BOIS

✓ UCF (69%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCF -3

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUCF -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCF -3

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like UCF as a 3-point road favorite at BOIS, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: UCF won 18–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 34 points stayed under 58.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

—

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 3; 37 points a game (usually 54.4). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	SC @ ECU 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3	20–17	P	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
BOIS L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: UCF away, as favorite; BOIS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF –	0-0	—	1-0
BOIS –	0-0	—	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 40 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 44% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCFlast 1	1-0 100%	1-0 100%	0-0 —
BOISlast 1	0-1 0%	0-1 0%	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UCF

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#15

Offense

◀ UCF better

#95

#30

Defense

◀ UCF better

#127

−2.0 #117

Turnovers

Even

−2.0 #119

81 plays #10

Pace

◀ UCF faster

75 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	56.0 #9	56.0 #130	UCF
Yards / play	8.93 #7	9.31 #133	UCF
PPA / play	+0.49 #19	+0.50 #127	UCF
Success rate	55% #25	50% #116	UCF

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: UCF defense

	BOIS off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #100	6.0 #13	UCF
Yards / play	5.36 #83	3.51 #19	UCF
PPA / play	+0.12 #77	−0.04 #58	Even
Success rate	32% #121	32% #28	UCF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.