Middle Tennessee @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Missouri

Weather at kickoff77°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

0-1 · Power #99

final

Final

Missouri

1-0 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -21

✓ MTSU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 16–36 MIZ

✓ MIZ (93%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIZ -21

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIZ -21

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIZ -21

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like MIZ as a 21-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 23–19; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 7 similar games. 42 points stayed under 47.5, as in 1 of 7.

Favorite won

6 of 786%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

2 of 633%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 786%

Above normal · usually 47%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17 against an average line of 21.3; 54.4 points a game (usually 55.4). When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	WVU vs KU 2020 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & total	-21	38–17	P	O49
Loose	HOU vs NAVY 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & spread	-20	28–20	L	O47
Loose	KSU vs KU 2020 · Week 8 · loose · similar total & spread	-19	55–14	W	O46
Loose	ORST vs COLO 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar total & rest	-23	42–9	W	O47.5
Loose	CIN vs USF 2020 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & total	-22	28–7	L	U45.5
Loose	UAB vs RICE 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-23.75	24–30	L	O44.5
Loose	MSST vs LT 2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-20.5	35–34	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1
MIZ L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU –	0-0	—	0-1
MIZ O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 66% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSUlast 1	0-1 0%	0-1 0%	0-0 —
MIZlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MTSU

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#112

Offense

MIZ better ▶

#38

#125

Defense

MIZ better ▶

#26

−2.0 #122

Turnovers

MIZ better ▶

−1.0 #87

61 plays #106

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

66 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	MTSU off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	7.0 #126	10.0 #30	MIZ
Yards / play	3.46 #128	3.23 #10	MIZ
PPA / play	−0.02 #101	−0.09 #40	MIZ
Success rate	39% #93	30% #24	MIZ

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #56	56.0 #131	MIZ
Yards / play	6.77 #38	6.73 #112	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.36 #32	+0.54 #129	MIZ
Success rate	55% #26	59% #129	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.