UTEP @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Northwestern

Weather at kickoff69°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

UTEP

1-1 · Power #115

final

Final

Northwestern

0-1 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

NU -1

✓ NU W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 22–23 NU

✓ NU (55%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNU -1

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNU -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNU -1

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like NU as a 1-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NU won 38–7; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 7 similar games. 45 points went over 39.5, as in 5 of 7.

Favorite won

3 of 743%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 729%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 771%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 5.6 against an average line of 2.5; 51.3 points a game (usually 55). When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	SJSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & spread	-3	27–21	W	O40.5
Loose	RICE vs USM 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & rest	-1.25	24–19	W	U45
Loose	ARIZ vs SDSU 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & rest	-1.5	14–38	L	O46.5
Loose	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar total	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Loose	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Loose	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Loose	GT vs MIA 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2	14–35	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP LW	1-1	50%	0-1	—
NU L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; NU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP UU	0-2	0%	1-1
NU U	0-1	0%	0-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEPlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
NUlast 1	0-1 0%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UTEP

Longer bar = better

#66

Offense

◀ UTEP better

#130

#57

Defense

◀ UTEP better

#72

−1.0 #80

Turnovers

◀ UTEP better

−1.0 #113

68 plays #64

Pace

◀ UTEP faster

63 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Even matchup

	UTEP off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #95	24.0 #88	Even
Yards / play	5.83 #67	3.90 #30	NU
PPA / play	+0.19 #58	+0.15 #98	UTEP
Success rate	49% #44	38% #71	UTEP

When NU has the ball

Advantage: UTEP defense

	NU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	7.0 #127	15.5 #55	UTEP
Yards / play	3.19 #132	4.79 #64	UTEP
PPA / play	−0.35 #132	0.00 #65	UTEP
Success rate	26% #130	34% #43	UTEP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.