Northwestern @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Duke

Weather at kickoff83°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Northwestern

1-1 · Power #65

final

Final

Duke

2-0 · Power #37

▲ winner

Closing spread

DUKE -17

✓ DUKE W

Total

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

NU 14–30 DUKE

✓ DUKE (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDUKE -17

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDUKE -17

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDUKE -17

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 17-point home favorite against NU, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 38–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 48, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.9 against an average line of 15.6; 49.5 points a game (usually 55.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CCU vs TROY 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-17	35–28	L	O50
Close	BYU vs SDSU 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar total & rest	-16.5	28–14	L	U47.5
Close	MRSH vs FAU 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-19	20–9	L	U51
Close	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Close	CIN vs TLSA 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	27–24	L	O44.5
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	TULN vs USM 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation	-11.75	24–27	L	O48.5
Close	PITT vs NCST 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-14	29–30	L	O46
Close	USA vs TXST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-16	38–21	W	O46
Close	ASU vs STAN 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-13.5	28–10	W	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1
DUKE WL	1-1	50%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: NU away, as underdog; DUKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU UO	1-1	50%	1-1
DUKE –P	0-0-1	—	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 36 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NUlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%
DUKElast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	0-0-1 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU−3.1 →−2.0▲ 1.1#79

DUKE+4.1 →+6.7▲ 2.6#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#94

Offense

DUKE better ▶

#29

#49

Defense

Even

#40

+1.0 #33

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #34

61 plays #117

Pace

DUKE faster ▶

65 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	NU off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #105	7.0 #7	DUKE
Yards / play	4.85 #119	4.74 #38	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.10 #85	−0.14 #12	DUKE
Success rate	43% #67	45% #103	NU

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #47	15.5 #37	Even
Yards / play	6.84 #26	4.38 #23	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #25	+0.08 #78	DUKE
Success rate	53% #18	38% #57	DUKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 48 FBS teams

NU scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	3.5	0.0	3.5	10.5	8.5	19.0
DUKE allowed	3.5	3.5	7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

DUKE scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	5.0	8.5	13.5	10.5	11.0	21.5
NU allowed	7.0	5.0	12.0	3.5	0.0	3.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.