Minnesota @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Northwestern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F10 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota

2-1 · Power #79

final

Final

Northwestern

1-2 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -12

✓ NU W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 25–15 NU

✗ MINN (76%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -12

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMINN -12

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -12

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 12-point road favorite at NU, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NU won 37–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 39.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 26.8 against an average line of 12; 49 points a game (usually 56.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FRES @ UNM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-9.75	41–9	W	O40.25
Close	CLEM @ SC 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	30–0	W	U42.5
Close	WISC @ ILL 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-12	24–0	W	U42
Close	WISC @ NU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	42–7	W	O44.5
Close	WISC @ RUTG 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	52–3	W	O37.5
Close	TROY @ ARST 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	48–19	W	O44
Close	FAU @ FIU 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	38–19	W	O42
Close	CSU @ UNM 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	36–7	W	U44.75
Close	UAB @ LT 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-12.75	34–37	L	O47
Close	SDSU @ UNM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	34–10	W	O36

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2
NU LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	0-2

Venue/role: MINN away, as favorite; NU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN –UU	0-2	0%	2-1
NU UOO	2-1	67%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINNlast 3	2-1 67%	0-3 0%	0-2 0%
NUlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN−0.1 →−0.3▼ 0.2#66

NU−3.1 →−3.7▼ 0.6#80

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MINN

Longer bar = better

#113

Offense

Even

#101

#65

Defense

◀ MINN better

#91

+0.7 #34

Turnovers

◀ MINN better

+0.3 #56

67 plays #67

Pace

◀ MINN faster

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: NU defense

	MINN off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #121	23.0 #74	NU
Yards / play	4.81 #120	5.51 #77	NU
PPA / play	−0.02 #118	+0.17 #107	Even
Success rate	41% #91	45% #106	Even

When NU has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	NU off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #114	15.7 #34	MINN
Yards / play	4.47 #131	5.52 #78	MINN
PPA / play	+0.08 #91	+0.01 #57	MINN
Success rate	42% #67	42% #89	NU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	0.0 #132	7.7 #87	7.7 #126	4.3 #99	5.0 #96	9.3 #113
NU allowed	7.0 #109	6.7 #67	13.7 #90	7.0 #99	2.3 #9	9.3 #45

NU scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	2.3 #116	2.3 #127	4.7 #129	7.0 #48	8.0 #49	15.0 #53
MINN allowed	2.3 #19	6.7 #67	9.0 #51	3.3 #37	3.3 #22	6.7 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.