Memphis vs Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · Neutral site

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Memphis

3-0 · Power #50

final

Final

Missouri

3-0 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -6.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 23–26 MIZ

✓ MIZ (60%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIZ -6.5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIZ -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIZ -6.5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 6.5-point neutral-site favorite against MEM, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 34–27; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 52, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 4.5; 45.4 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MSU vs PITT 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total	-3.5	31–21	W	U55
Loose	WMU vs NEV 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-6.5	52–24	W	O57
Loose	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & total	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Loose	FSU vs LSU 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total	-4.5	24–23	L	U51
Loose	UL vs MRSH 2021 · Postseason · loose	-4	36–21	W	O55.5
Loose	BUFF vs MRSH 2020 · Postseason · loose · similar total & spread	-5.5	17–10	W	U53.5
Loose	ARK vs PSU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar total	-3.5	24–10	W	U51
Loose	TA&M vs ARK 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	10–20	L	U47
Loose	MSST vs ILL 2022 · Postseason · loose	-3.5	19–10	W	U46.5
Loose	USA vs WKU 2022 · Postseason · loose	-3.75	23–44	L	O58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MEM LWL	1-2	33%	—	—
MIZ LLW	1-2	33%	—	0-2

Venue/role: MEM neutral, as underdog; MIZ neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM OUO	2-1	67%	3-0
MIZ OUO	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 64 earlier overs in games with totals 48–56, 42% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEMlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
MIZlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+6.5 →+10.2▲ 3.7#22

MIZ+0.4 →+2.4▲ 2.0#48

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MEM

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#43

Offense

Even

#51

Defense

◀ MEM better

#43

+0.7 #43

Turnovers

◀ MEM better

0.0 #61

72 plays #26

Pace

◀ MEM faster

65 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Even matchup

	MEM off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	40.3 #21	18.7 #46	MEM
Yards / play	6.21 #45	4.46 #28	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #73	+0.05 #66	Even
Success rate	49% #34	35% #33	Even

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	MIZ off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #72	13.7 #23	MEM
Yards / play	6.12 #51	3.98 #10	MEM
PPA / play	+0.23 #44	−0.28 #1	MEM
Success rate	48% #38	29% #2	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	6.7 #60	15.3 #11	22.0 #16	11.7 #10	6.7 #71	18.3 #23
MIZ allowed	2.3 #19	5.7 #51	8.0 #36	4.3 #62	6.3 #75	10.7 #69

MIZ scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	9.0 #26	9.3 #54	18.3 #39	2.0 #122	9.0 #40	11.0 #92
MEM allowed	7.0 #109	1.0 #1	8.0 #36	2.3 #22	3.3 #22	5.7 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.