Ole Miss @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff88°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

3-0 · Power #16

final

Final

Alabama

2-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -7

✓ ALA W

Total

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 26–32 ALA

✓ ALA (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -7

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseALA -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -7

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 7-point home favorite against MISS, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 24–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 56, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.6 against an average line of 5.8; 52.8 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ND vs PUR 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–13	W	U58.5
Close	FLA vs UK 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	16–26	L	U52.75
Close	NCST vs TTU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-10.5	27–14	W	U55.75
Close	LSU vs AUB 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-3	19–24	L	U56
Close	APP vs MRSH 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	31–30	L	O59.25
Close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Loose	ORE vs BYU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	41–20	W	O58
Loose	UNC vs VT 2020 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	56–45	W	O58.75
Loose	ARK vs AUB 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & total	-4.5	23–38	L	O54.5
Loose	ISU vs TEX 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6	30–7	W	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	—
ALA WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: MISS away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS OUO	2-1	67%	3-0
ALA –OU	1-1	50%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 44% of games with totals 52–60 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISSlast 3	3-0 100%	3-0 100%	2-1 67%
ALAlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+4.5 →+13.1▲ 8.6#15

ALA+13.1 →+13.6▲ 0.5#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MISS

Longer bar = better

ALA

#22

Offense

◀ MISS better

#65

#52

Defense

ALA better ▶

#27

+0.8 #29

Turnovers

◀ MISS better

+0.3 #61

65 plays #94

Pace

Even

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #15	13.5 #21	Even
Yards / play	7.29 #13	4.47 #28	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #13	0.00 #48	MISS
Success rate	46% #47	32% #11	ALA

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #62	18.5 #44	Even
Yards / play	5.68 #73	4.61 #33	MISS
PPA / play	+0.16 #62	+0.02 #54	Even
Success rate	43% #64	41% #76	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	15.0 #6	4.3 #114	19.3 #34	16.3 #1	17.0 #1	33.3 #1
ALA allowed	2.0 #18	3.3 #17	5.3 #9	2.3 #20	7.0 #80	9.3 #49

ALA scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	4.7 #80	7.7 #88	12.3 #97	10.3 #18	9.7 #29	20.0 #19
MISS allowed	4.7 #74	4.3 #29	9.0 #46	2.3 #20	5.3 #58	7.7 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.