Mississippi State @ South Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at South Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Mississippi State

2-1 · Power #64

final

Final

South Carolina

1-2 · Power #47

▲ winner

Closing spread

SC -6

✓ SC W

Total

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 23–29 SC

✓ SC (64%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSC -6

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSC -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSC -6

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SC as a 6-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: SC won 37–30; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 47, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.6 against an average line of 5.1; 41.4 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SYR vs BC 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	21–6	W	U51.5
Very close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	34–17	W	O47
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	WVU vs KSU 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	37–10	W	O46
Very close	UAB vs FAU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	31–14	W	U49
Very close	GAST vs TROY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	37–10	W	U49.5
Very close	OKST vs USA 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	7–33	L	U49.25
Close	VT vs BC 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	27–10	W	U45
Close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-3	6–10	L	U47
Close	TROY vs CCU 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	45–26	W	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST WLL	1-2	33%	—	0-1
SC LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; SC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST UUO	1-2	33%	2-1
SC UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q3. Of 50 earlier overs in games with totals 43–51, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSSTlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
SClast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+2.3 →+0.9▼ 1.4#58

SC−1.6 →−0.4▲ 1.2#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MSST

Longer bar = better

#78

Offense

SC better ▶

#54

#91

Defense

Even

#84

+1.7 #10

Turnovers

◀ MSST better

0.0 #74

58 plays #125

Pace

SC faster ▶

68 plays #55

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #59	25.3 #85	MSST
Yards / play	5.94 #65	5.67 #88	MSST
PPA / play	+0.10 #85	+0.07 #73	Even
Success rate	39% #104	43% #91	Even

When SC has the ball

Advantage: SC offense

	SC off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #83	24.0 #80	Even
Yards / play	6.00 #60	5.79 #97	SC
PPA / play	+0.31 #28	+0.08 #75	SC
Success rate	47% #45	46% #113	SC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	5.7 #72	8.0 #80	13.7 #76	4.7 #97	10.3 #16	15.0 #53
SC allowed	5.7 #93	5.7 #51	11.3 #72	9.3 #121	4.7 #44	14.0 #99

SC scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	7.0 #50	11.3 #36	18.3 #39	4.3 #99	3.3 #120	7.7 #121
MSST allowed	3.3 #44	9.3 #101	12.7 #83	5.7 #83	5.7 #61	11.3 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.