Buffalo @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Louisiana

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Buffalo

0-3 · Power #119

final

Final

Louisiana

2-1 · Power #87

▲ winner

Closing spread

UL -10.5

✓ BUFF W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 83 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 22–34 UL

✓ UL (79%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUL -10.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUL -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUL -10.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 10.5-point home favorite against BUFF, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 45–38; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 83 points went over 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.1 against an average line of 12.4; 54.1 points a game (usually 55.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-12.5	20–45	L	O57.5
Very close	TROY vs MTSU 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11	17–20	L	U60.5
Very close	PUR vs ILL 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	13–9	L	U53.25
Very close	LIB vs USM 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-14	56–35	W	O59.5
Very close	CCU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12	38–26	P	O59.75
Close	TOL vs CSU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	6–22	L	U59
Close	CCU vs ODU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-11.25	21–49	L	O58.5
Close	SMU vs NAVY 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-13.25	51–37	W	O58.5
Close	UCF vs TULN 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-13.5	14–10	L	U57
Close	MEM vs NAVY 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-11	35–17	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF WLL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-1
UL LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: BUFF away, as underdog; UL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF OOO	3-0	100%	0-3
UL UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 52 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 40% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFFlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	3-0 100%
ULlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−8.2 →−10.4▼ 2.2#120

UL+1.8 →+0.5▼ 1.3#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

BUFF

Longer bar = better

#82

Offense

UL better ▶

#33

#121

Defense

UL better ▶

#52

−0.3 #90

Turnovers

◀ BUFF better

−1.0 #122

71 plays #33

Pace

◀ BUFF faster

69 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: UL defense

	BUFF off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #79	24.0 #78	Even
Yards / play	4.91 #113	5.00 #52	UL
PPA / play	+0.09 #86	−0.01 #43	UL
Success rate	45% #49	35% #34	Even

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	36.7 #33	44.3 #132	UL
Yards / play	6.78 #25	7.12 #132	UL
PPA / play	+0.20 #49	+0.28 #126	UL
Success rate	51% #25	43% #92	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	7.0 #50	8.0 #80	15.0 #66	5.3 #83	6.7 #71	12.0 #76
UL allowed	3.3 #44	4.3 #33	7.7 #32	5.7 #83	10.7 #123	16.3 #116

UL scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.7 #72	15.0 #12	20.7 #26	5.7 #77	10.3 #16	16.0 #44
BUFF allowed	6.7 #103	12.7 #123	19.3 #122	12.3 #132	12.7 #129	25.0 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.