Liberty @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Buffalo

Weather at kickoff67°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Liberty

2-0 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo

0-2 · Power #119

final

Closing spread

LIB -2.5

✓ LIB W

Total

▲ Over · 82 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 29–25 BUFF

✓ LIB (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -2.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLIB -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -2.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 2.5-point road favorite at BUFF, the favorite won 4, covered 1, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 55–27; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 82 points went over 54, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 1.3 against an average line of 3.8; 51.5 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ EMU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	27–24	L	U54
Very close	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Very close	DUKE @ GT 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	20–23	L	U54
Very close	TOL @ CMU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	23–26	L	U53
Very close	TOL @ BALL 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	22–12	W	U56.5
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	45–50	L	O53.75
Very close	USA @ TXST 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & season form	-4	31–33	L	O52.5
Close	WVU @ TTU 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	27–34	L	O54
Close	BYU @ WSU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	21–19	L	U56.5
Close	ORST @ STAN 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	28–27	L	O53.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1
BUFF WL	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; BUFF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB –U	0-1	0%	2-0
BUFF OO	2-0	100%	0-2

Went over in Q3. Of 34 earlier overs in games with totals 50–58, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIBlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	0-1 0%
BUFFlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB+3.0 →+1.3▼ 1.7#59

BUFF−8.2 →−9.7▼ 1.5#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

LIB

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#35

Offense

◀ LIB better

#86

#63

Defense

◀ LIB better

#118

+2.7 #3

Turnovers

◀ LIB better

−0.3 #88

70 plays #43

Pace

Even

71 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	40.7 #22	44.3 #129	LIB
Yards / play	7.03 #21	7.12 #129	LIB
PPA / play	+0.21 #47	+0.28 #120	LIB
Success rate	47% #48	43% #92	LIB

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	BUFF off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #83	22.7 #68	Even
Yards / play	4.91 #113	5.34 #77	LIB
PPA / play	+0.09 #87	−0.03 #37	LIB
Success rate	45% #60	39% #71	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 22 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	7.0	16.5	23.5	8.5	1.5	10.0
BUFF allowed	5.0	12.0	17.0	10.0	12.0	22.0

BUFF scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	10.5	5.0	15.5	4.5	7.0	11.5
LIB allowed	3.5	12.0	15.5	5.0	0.0	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.