Iowa State @ Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Ohio

Weather at kickoff72°F1 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

1-1 · Power #35

final

Final

Ohio

2-1 · Power #63

▲ winner

Closing spread

ISU -1.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

▼ Under · 17 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 21–22 OHIO

✓ OHIO (52%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseISU -1.5

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseISU -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseISU -1.5

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 1.5-point road favorite at OHIO, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 10–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 17 points stayed under 42, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.2 against an average line of 2; 42.8 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SJSU @ WYO 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	33–16	W	O42.5
Close	FAU @ GASO 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	3–20	L	U40.5
Close	TULN @ CIN 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	27–24	W	O44
Close	WSU @ WASH 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	40–13	W	O45
Close	FRES @ SDSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	30–20	W	O44.25
Close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	35–21	W	O45
Close	SDSU @ NEV 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	21–26	L	O46.5
Close	KSU @ ISU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-1	10–9	P	U45
Close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75
Close	AFA @ ARMY 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	7–10	L	U37.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU WL	1-1	50%	—	1-0
OHIO LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: ISU away, as favorite; OHIO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UU	0-2	0%	1-1
OHIO –UU	0-2	0%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISUlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
OHIOlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU−4.8 →−5.1▼ 0.3#95

OHIO+0.9 →+0.2▼ 0.7#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ISU

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#120

Offense

Even

#112

#20

Defense

Even

#24

0.0 #72

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #82

56 plays #129

Pace

OHIO faster ▶

71 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	ISU off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #126	11.8 #18	OHIO
Yards / play	4.86 #118	4.47 #28	OHIO
PPA / play	−0.01 #119	−0.11 #22	OHIO
Success rate	36% #115	34% #26	OHIO

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	OHIO off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	16.8 #124	13.0 #22	ISU
Yards / play	4.54 #128	3.96 #12	ISU
PPA / play	−0.02 #122	−0.11 #20	ISU
Success rate	43% #74	34% #24	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 22 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	7.0	6.0	13.0	3.5	5.0	8.5
OHIO allowed	1.0 #3	6.7 #11	7.7 #6	0.0 #1	5.7 #12	5.7 #3

OHIO scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	2.0 #22	8.0 #12	10.0 #20	5.7 #13	3.3 #20	9.0 #19
ISU allowed	1.5	7.0	8.5	3.0	3.0	6.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.