Oklahoma State @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Iowa State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F21 mphgusts 36Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Oklahoma State

2-1 · Power #43

final

Final

Iowa State

1-2 · Power #35

▲ winner

Closing spread

ISU -3.5

✓ ISU W

Total

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 16–20 ISU

✓ ISU (60%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseISU -3.5

Total36

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseISU -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close36

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseISU -3.5

Total36

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 3.5-point home favorite against OKST, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 34–27; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 36, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.7 against an average line of 3.3; 45.9 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SJSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	27–21	W	O40.5
Close	ARMY vs GASO 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	28–27	L	O38.5
Close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Close	BOIS vs SDSU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-6	35–13	W	O38
Close	MIZ vs UK 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-1	17–21	L	U40
Close	IOWA vs MINN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	27–22	W	O37
Close	VT vs BC 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	27–10	W	U45
Close	CSU vs SJSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	32–14	W	O44.5
Close	GT vs MIA 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	14–35	L	O43.5
Close	AFA vs SDSU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	14–20	L	U39

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	—
ISU WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: OKST away, as underdog; ISU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST UUU	0-3	0%	2-1
ISU UUU	0-3	0%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKSTlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%
ISUlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OKST−1.5 →−4.0▼ 2.5#81

ISU−4.8 →−2.9▲ 1.9#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

OKST

Longer bar = better

ISU

#102

Offense

◀ OKST better

#119

#77

Defense

ISU better ▶

#17

−0.3 #99

Turnovers

ISU better ▶

0.0 #68

69 plays #53

Pace

◀ OKST faster

56 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	OKST off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #111	13.0 #20	ISU
Yards / play	4.68 #124	3.96 #8	ISU
PPA / play	+0.09 #84	−0.11 #15	ISU
Success rate	41% #89	34% #24	ISU

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: OKST defense

	ISU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #125	20.3 #55	OKST
Yards / play	4.86 #115	5.57 #83	OKST
PPA / play	−0.01 #116	+0.17 #106	Even
Success rate	36% #120	39% #62	OKST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

OKST scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	2.3 #113	5.3 #113	7.7 #122	2.3 #116	10.3 #15	12.7 #70
ISU allowed	1.0 #11	4.7 #38	5.7 #14	4.3 #56	3.0 #17	7.3 #24

ISU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	4.7 #84	4.0 #120	8.7 #119	2.3 #116	5.7 #83	8.0 #114
OKST allowed	5.7 #92	7.0 #72	12.7 #82	2.3 #22	5.3 #58	7.7 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.