UCF @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

UCF

3-0 · Power #31

final

Final

Kansas State

2-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -6

✓ KSU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 25–31 KSU

✓ KSU (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -6

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKSU -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -6

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 6-point home favorite against UCF, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 44–31; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 5.5; 51 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Very close	FLA vs UK 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	16–26	L	U52.75
Very close	APP vs MRSH 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	31–30	L	O59.25
Close	ILL vs UVA 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-4	24–3	W	U55
Close	MSU vs NEB 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	23–20	L	U54.75
Close	ARK vs AUB 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	23–38	L	O54.5
Close	BAY vs BYU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	38–24	W	O52.5
Close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Close	WVU vs TTU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	20–23	L	U55.25
Close	UCLA vs ASU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-3	23–42	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	—
KSU WWL	2-1	67%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: UCF away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF –UO	1-1	50%	3-0
KSU UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Went over in Q3. Of 59 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 37% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCFlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%
KSUlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+15.6 →+4.6▼ 11.0#41

KSU+2.0 →+7.4▲ 5.4#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UCF

Longer bar = better

KSU

#14

Offense

◀ UCF better

#32

#21

Defense

Even

#30

−0.7 #106

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #95

78 plays #8

Pace

◀ UCF faster

72 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Even matchup

	UCF off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	40.7 #15	14.3 #22	Even
Yards / play	7.95 #7	4.89 #43	UCF
PPA / play	+0.33 #17	−0.01 #44	UCF
Success rate	53% #17	32% #9	Even

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #24	12.0 #12	Even
Yards / play	6.48 #37	4.55 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #35	−0.09 #15	Even
Success rate	48% #31	36% #33	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	11.3 #10	12.3 #25	23.7 #10	7.0 #51	10.0 #22	17.0 #38
KSU allowed	3.3 #46	5.7 #52	9.0 #51	0.0 #1	5.3 #57	5.3 #12

KSU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	7.0 #50	16.3 #5	23.3 #12	6.7 #63	8.0 #51	14.7 #57
UCF allowed	3.3 #46	1.0 #1	4.3 #3	1.0 #10	6.7 #75	7.7 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.