James Madison @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Utah State

Weather at kickoff62°F1 mphgusts 6DryWeather watch ›

James Madison

3-0 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

Utah State

1-2 · Power #100

final

Closing spread

JMU -5.5

✓ JMU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 83 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 29–24 USU

✓ JMU (62%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -5.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJMU -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -5.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 5.5-point road favorite at USU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 45–38; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 83 points went over 53.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.1 against an average line of 5.1; 49.5 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	27–34	L	O56
Very close	UK @ SC 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	16–10	W	U49
Very close	TOL @ CMU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-5	23–26	L	U53
Very close	BYU @ WSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	21–19	L	U56.5
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Close	MRSH @ GASO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-6	23–10	W	U52.5
Close	GAST @ CLT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.25	41–25	W	O52
Close	UL @ UAB 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	24–20	W	U50.5
Close	TOL @ EMU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-4	27–24	L	U54
Close	BYU @ LIB 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	14–41	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU LLW	1-2	33%	1-1	0-2
USU WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: JMU away, as favorite; USU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU UOU	1-2	33%	3-0
USU UOO	2-1	67%	1-2

Went over in Q2. Of 59 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 37% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMUlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
USUlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU+5.1 →+0.1▼ 5.0#65

USU−5.3 →−4.5▲ 0.8#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

JMU

Longer bar = better

USU

#72

Offense

USU better ▶

#39

#37

Defense

◀ JMU better

#92

+0.7 #35

Turnovers

◀ JMU better

0.0 #72

65 plays #83

Pace

USU faster ▶

67 plays #61

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Even matchup

	JMU off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #62	30.3 #108	JMU
Yards / play	5.72 #67	5.16 #56	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #69	+0.13 #89	Even
Success rate	40% #90	46% #114	JMU

When USU has the ball

Even matchup

	USU off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #26	17.3 #35	Even
Yards / play	6.05 #52	5.05 #52	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #49	+0.02 #51	Even
Success rate	48% #30	32% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	7.7 #45	8.0 #79	15.7 #59	5.7 #78	8.7 #46	14.3 #60
USU allowed	14.3 #133	6.7 #66	21.0 #129	4.7 #64	4.7 #45	9.3 #45

USU scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	2.3 #116	18.0 #3	20.3 #25	8.0 #44	9.3 #33	17.3 #35
JMU allowed	2.3 #24	5.7 #52	8.0 #36	7.0 #97	2.3 #9	9.3 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.