UNLV @ UTEP: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at UTEP

Weather at kickoff91°F14 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

UNLV

2-1 · Power #68

▲ winner

Final

UTEP

1-3 · Power #115

final

Closing spread

UTEP -1

✓ UNLV W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 25–26 UTEP

✗ UTEP (54%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTEP -1

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUTEP -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTEP -1

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTEP as a 1-point home favorite against UNLV, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 45–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 2.4; 49.5 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	UTEP vs MTSU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-2.5	13–24	L	U52
Close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar season form	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Close	WSU vs STAN 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	34–31	W	O53
Close	USU vs SJSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	35–31	W	O51
Close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	38–19	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0
UTEP LWLL	1-3	25%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: UNLV away, as underdog; UTEP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV UUO	1-2	33%	2-1
UTEP UUOU	1-3	25%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 60 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 40% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLVlast 3	2-1 67%	3-0 100%	1-2 33%
UTEPlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UNLV 7–2 UTEP UNLV leads · 9 games since 1978 · UNLV has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV−2.6 →−8.7▼ 6.1#108

UTEP−4.4 →−10.1▼ 5.7#117

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UNLV

Longer bar = better

UTEP

#92

Offense

Even

#88

#98

Defense

Even

#103

+0.7 #34

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

−1.3 #124

66 plays #75

Pace

Even

65 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Even matchup

	UNLV off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #60	25.0 #75	Even
Yards / play	5.18 #101	6.20 #115	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #88	+0.22 #116	UNLV
Success rate	36% #118	45% #107	Even

When UTEP has the ball

Even matchup

	UTEP off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	14.8 #130	28.7 #103	UNLV
Yards / play	5.51 #83	6.38 #120	UTEP
PPA / play	+0.10 #82	+0.09 #75	Even
Success rate	43% #57	43% #95	UTEP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	5.7 #72	9.0 #64	14.7 #68	9.0 #33	6.7 #72	15.7 #49
UTEP allowed	4.3 #64	7.0 #69	11.3 #71	9.5 #120	4.3 #41	13.8 #94

UTEP scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	3.5 #103	4.3 #119	7.8 #125	1.8 #125	5.3 #89	7.0 #122
UNLV allowed	5.7 #94	7.0 #69	12.7 #81	7.0 #96	9.0 #108	16.0 #115

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.