Liberty @ Florida International: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Florida International · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F7 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Liberty

3-0 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

Florida International

3-1 · Power #131

final

Closing spread

LIB -10

✓ LIB W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 30–20 FIU

✓ LIB (76%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -10

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLIB -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -10

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 10-point road favorite at FIU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 38–6; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 54.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.9 against an average line of 10.5; 55.5 points a game (usually 55). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP @ TROY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	45–7	W	O51.5
Very close	UTSA @ UTEP 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & total	-11.5	44–23	W	O53
Very close	UL @ RICE 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	21–33	L	O52
Very close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	27–34	L	O56
Very close	AFA @ UNLV 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	42–7	W	U50
Very close	CCU @ TROY 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & total	-12.75	42–38	L	O52.5
Very close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-9	31–3	W	U52
Close	UAB @ RICE 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	24–28	L	O51
Close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-12	45–31	W	O55
Close	TROY @ USM 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	21–9	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1
FIU WLWW	3-1	75%	1-1	3-0

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; FIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB –UO	1-1	50%	3-0
FIU –UOU	1-2	33%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 45% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIBlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%
FIUlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LIB 3–1 FIU LIB leads · 4 games since 2020 · FIU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB+3.0 →+1.2▼ 1.8#55

FIU−5.6 →−9.1▼ 3.5#111

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

LIB

Longer bar = better

FIU

#34

Offense

◀ LIB better

#85

#62

Defense

Even

#54

+2.7 #1

Turnovers

◀ LIB better

−0.3 #79

70 plays #39

Pace

◀ LIB faster

56 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	40.7 #18	22.5 #70	LIB
Yards / play	7.03 #22	5.33 #70	LIB
PPA / play	+0.21 #49	−0.05 #33	Even
Success rate	47% #46	36% #42	Even

When FIU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	FIU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #88	22.7 #71	Even
Yards / play	6.07 #57	5.34 #72	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #92	−0.03 #39	LIB
Success rate	39% #102	39% #65	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	8.0 #38	15.7 #12	23.7 #14	11.3 #13	5.7 #84	17.0 #35
FIU allowed	4.0 #66	6.5 #62	10.5 #64	5.0 #67	7.0 #80	12.0 #79

FIU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	8.8 #30	9.3 #58	18.0 #42	5.3 #86	2.0 #126	7.3 #121
LIB allowed	2.3 #19	12.7 #119	15.0 #95	5.7 #78	2.0 #7	7.7 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.