Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Thu, Sep 21, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Coastal Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

3-0 · Power #91

▲ winner

Final

Coastal Carolina

2-1 · Power #70

final

Closing spread

CCU -4.5

✓ GAST W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 26–31 CCU

✗ CCU (64%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCCU -4.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCCU -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close62.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCCU -4.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CCU as a 4.5-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: GAST won 30–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 62.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 4; 65.6 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES vs NEV 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	34–32	L	O64.5
Very close	APP vs MRSH 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	31–30	L	O59.25
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Very close	FRES vs BSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	14–40	L	U61
Close	MEM vs UTSA 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	28–31	L	U66.5
Close	WKU vs UAB 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-1.25	20–17	W	U60.5
Close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & spread	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Close	TULN vs SMU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	59–24	W	O65
Close	UNC vs VT 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	56–45	W	O58.75
Close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-6	17–26	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	—
CCU WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; CCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST OUO	2-1	67%	3-0
CCU –UO	1-1	50%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 47% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASTlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%
CCUlast 3	2-1 67%	3-0 100%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−3.6 →−1.8▲ 1.8#70

CCU−2.7 →+1.9▲ 4.6#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

GAST

Longer bar = better

CCU

#36

Offense

◀ GAST better

#66

#67

Defense

Even

#63

+2.0 #5

Turnovers

◀ GAST better

+1.3 #21

67 plays #66

Pace

Even

69 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	CCU def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #26	16.7 #40	Even
Yards / play	6.90 #24	5.93 #104	GAST
PPA / play	+0.32 #23	−0.10 #20	Even
Success rate	42% #72	42% #87	Even

When CCU has the ball

Even matchup

	CCU off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #39	24.7 #81	CCU
Yards / play	6.11 #53	5.75 #90	CCU
PPA / play	+0.13 #74	+0.02 #60	Even
Success rate	39% #99	35% #37	GAST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the CCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	9.3 #23	11.3 #43	20.7 #29	11.7 #10	7.0 #60	18.7 #24
CCU allowed	4.3 #68	3.3 #21	7.7 #34	2.3 #19	6.7 #72	9.0 #42

CCU scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CCU scored	9.3 #23	11.0 #51	20.3 #33	13.7 #7	2.3 #116	16.0 #42
GAST allowed	0.0 #1	8.0 #83	8.0 #38	9.7 #120	7.0 #79	16.7 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.