Southern Miss @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

1-2 · Power #121

final

Final

Arkansas State

1-2 · Power #107

▲ winner

Closing spread

USM -7

✓ ARST W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 81 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 28–22 ARST

✗ USM (65%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSM -7

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSM -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSM -7

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USM as a 7-point road favorite at ARST, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 44–37 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 81 points went over 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.1 against an average line of 6.7; 45.9 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNM @ USU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	27–41	L	O49
Close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	13–17	L	U45
Close	UNT @ USM 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-5.25	38–14	W	O49
Close	NEV @ HAW 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.25	16–31	L	U51.5
Close	SJSU @ UNLV 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-6	27–20	W	O44
Close	BGSU @ AKR 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-9	31–28	L	O49.5
Close	GT @ SYR 2020 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	20–37	L	O52
Close	OHIO @ BGSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-6.25	10–21	L	U48.5
Close	WKU @ MTSU 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-7	20–17	L	U52.5
Close	ECU @ TEM 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	28–3	W	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-0
ARST LLW	1-2	33%	1-1	0-2

Venue/role: USM away, as favorite; ARST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM OOU	2-1	67%	1-2
ARST –UU	0-2	0%	1-2

Went over in Q3. Of 44 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USMlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
ARSTlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−0.3 →−11.3▼ 11.0#122

ARST−20.5 →−12.4▲ 8.1#127

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

USM

Longer bar = better

ARST

#120

Offense

Even

#124

#86

Defense

◀ USM better

#123

0.0 #75

Turnovers

◀ USM better

−1.7 #132

65 plays #93

Pace

Even

63 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Even matchup

	USM off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #120	39.0 #130	Even
Yards / play	4.70 #124	6.27 #117	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #102	+0.24 #121	Even
Success rate	32% #134	48% #124	Even

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: USM defense

	ARST off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	11.3 #134	33.7 #120	Even
Yards / play	4.86 #118	6.51 #125	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #114	+0.09 #73	USM
Success rate	34% #131	35% #27	USM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

USM scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	5.7 #68	4.3 #117	10.0 #110	6.7 #63	2.0 #126	8.7 #115
ARST allowed	10.3 #126	12.7 #120	23.0 #129	9.3 #118	6.7 #75	16.0 #112

ARST scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	5.7 #68	1.0 #130	6.7 #126	2.3 #118	2.3 #124	4.7 #128
USM allowed	9.3 #123	5.7 #50	15.0 #96	11.7 #129	7.0 #81	18.7 #124

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.