Arkansas State @ Massachusetts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Massachusetts

Weather at kickoff67°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

2-2 · Power #107

▲ winner

Final

Massachusetts

1-4 · Power #127

final

Closing spread

MASS -2.5

✓ ARST W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 27–29 MASS

✗ MASS (58%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMASS -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMASS -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMASS -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MASS as a 2.5-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 52–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.1 against an average line of 2.9; 53.9 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USF vs TEM 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-1.5	34–14	W	U55
Very close	NIU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	14–22	L	U54.5
Very close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	30–38	L	O52
Very close	TXST vs ULM 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	27–19	W	U57.5
Very close	RICE vs UNT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	24–30	L	U55
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5
Very close	MTSU vs CSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	23–31	L	O50
Close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & team ratings	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Close	LT vs UTEP 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.75	41–31	W	O52.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST LLWW	2-2	50%	0-1	1-2
MASS WLLWL	2-3	40%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; MASS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST –UUO	1-2	33%	2-2
MASS OOOUO	4-1	80%	1-4

Went over in Q3. Of 57 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 42% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARSTlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-2 33%
MASSlast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−20.5 →−14.8▲ 5.7#131

MASS−11.8 →−13.2▼ 1.4#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ARST

Longer bar = better

MASS

#109

Offense

MASS better ▶

#70

#121

Defense

Even

#122

−1.0 #118

Turnovers

MASS better ▶

−0.2 #86

64 plays #101

Pace

Even

63 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	19.5 #118	36.6 #126	Even
Yards / play	5.29 #98	7.07 #131	ARST
PPA / play	+0.07 #89	+0.22 #118	ARST
Success rate	35% #129	46% #114	Even

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: MASS offense

	MASS off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	26.2 #85	38.5 #129	MASS
Yards / play	6.21 #46	6.31 #118	MASS
PPA / play	+0.09 #87	+0.24 #120	MASS
Success rate	43% #61	46% #115	MASS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	7.8 #39	2.3 #130	10.0 #113	5.3 #81	4.3 #105	9.5 #107
MASS allowed	9.6 #123	11.8 #118	21.4 #130	4.8 #65	9.2 #112	14.0 #101

MASS scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	2.8 #115	5.4 #115	8.2 #125	5.4 #78	12.0 #6	17.4 #31
ARST allowed	9.5 #122	12.0 #119	21.5 #131	9.5 #122	7.5 #92	17.0 #119

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.