Texas State @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff87°F6 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Texas State

3-1 · Power #73

▲ winner

Final

Southern Miss

1-3 · Power #121

final

Closing spread

TXST -6.5

✓ TXST W

Total

▲ Over · 86 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 32–26 USM

✓ TXST (66%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTXST -6.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTXST -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTXST -6.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 6.5-point road favorite at USM, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 50–36; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 86 points went over 60, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.7 against an average line of 6.3; 58.1 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTSA @ LT 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	45–16	W	O59.5
Very close	TOL @ EMU 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	45–28	W	O62
Very close	CMU @ EMU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	31–23	W	U59
Very close	NEV @ HAW 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	21–24	L	U63
Very close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Very close	GASO @ BALL 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	40–3	W	U61
Close	ORST @ WSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-4	24–31	L	U59
Close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	52–32	W	O59
Close	WMU @ BUFF 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-7	24–17	P	U59.5
Close	HOU @ TULN 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	40–22	W	O60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	1-1
USM WLLL	1-3	25%	1-1	0-2

Venue/role: TXST away, as favorite; USM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST –UOU	1-2	33%	3-1
USM OOUO	3-1	75%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 38 earlier overs in games with totals 56–64, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXSTlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	1-2 33%
USMlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST+3.4 →−4.1▼ 7.5#83

USM−0.3 →−9.7▼ 9.4#114

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

TXST

Longer bar = better

USM

#23

Offense

◀ TXST better

#104

#66

Defense

◀ TXST better

#94

+0.3 #55

Turnovers

◀ TXST better

−0.3 #91

65 plays #86

Pace

Even

66 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	41.8 #10	36.3 #128	TXST
Yards / play	7.47 #10	6.52 #127	TXST
PPA / play	+0.25 #35	+0.13 #92	TXST
Success rate	47% #35	35% #28	Even

When USM has the ball

Advantage: TXST defense

	USM off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #98	27.3 #89	Even
Yards / play	5.15 #105	5.27 #58	TXST
PPA / play	+0.10 #80	+0.04 #53	TXST
Success rate	35% #132	40% #62	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	8.8 #31	14.8 #8	23.5 #9	8.8 #35	9.5 #25	18.3 #23
USM allowed	10.5 #126	5.8 #49	16.3 #105	12.3 #132	7.8 #96	20.0 #127

USM scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	6.0 #61	5.8 #112	11.8 #97	7.5 #51	4.0 #116	11.5 #92
TXST allowed	6.3 #102	8.8 #93	15.0 #92	6.3 #87	6.0 #63	12.3 #71

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.