Old Dominion @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

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Old Dominion

2-3 · Power #97

▲ winner

Final

Southern Miss

1-4 · Power #121

final

Closing spread

USM -3

✓ ODU W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

ODU 24–27 USM

✗ USM (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSM -3

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSM -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Line context

Home favorites of 1–5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 48% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSM -3

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USM as a 3-point home favorite against ODU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ODU won 17–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.4 against an average line of 2.7; 57.2 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	WMU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	14–33	L	U61.5
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	MASS vs UNM 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–34	L	O48.5
Very close	RICE vs UNT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	24–30	L	U55
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Very close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	48–26	W	O55
Very close	NAVY vs USF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4	30–44	L	O54.5
Very close	UTEP vs UNLV 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1	28–45	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ODU LWW–W	3-1	75%	1-1	3-1
USM WLLLL	1-4	20%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: ODU away, as underdog; USM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ODU OOU–O	3-1	75%	2-3
USM OOUOO	4-1	80%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ODUlast 5	2-3 40%	3-1 75%	3-1 75%
USMlast 5	1-4 20%	1-4 20%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ODU−5.2 →−10.7▼ 5.5#118

USM−0.3 →−10.6▼ 10.3#117

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ODU

Longer bar = better

USM

#106

Offense

Even

#102

#68

Defense

◀ ODU better

#109

−1.2 #132

Turnovers

USM better ▶

0.0 #78

60 plays #126

Pace

USM faster ▶

71 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ODU has the ball

Even matchup

	ODU off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #97	39.0 #132	ODU
Yards / play	5.88 #64	6.99 #132	ODU
PPA / play	−0.09 #133	+0.18 #103	USM
Success rate	36% #128	41% #68	USM

When USM has the ball

Advantage: ODU defense

	USM off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #92	28.8 #94	Even
Yards / play	5.30 #98	5.05 #39	ODU
PPA / play	+0.07 #94	+0.03 #44	ODU
Success rate	36% #125	43% #96	ODU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ODU scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	2.8 #123	10.2 #41	13.0 #86	8.4 #34	3.4 #123	11.8 #90
USM allowed	14.0 #133	7.4 #67	21.4 #130	9.8 #123	7.8 #97	17.6 #124

USM scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	5.4 #77	6.0 #110	11.4 #107	7.2 #55	7.2 #62	14.4 #56
ODU allowed	3.0 #33	7.0 #59	10.0 #42	10.2 #129	8.6 #107	18.8 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.