Arkansas State @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Troy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F12 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arkansas State

3-2 · Power #107

final

Final

Troy

3-2 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

TROY -16.5

✓ TROY W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

ARST 15–32 TROY

✓ TROY (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -16.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTROY -16.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTROY -16.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 16.5-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 37–3; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.5 against an average line of 16.5; 47.5 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Very close	UK vs VAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17	21–24	L	U45.5
Very close	M-OH vs BGSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17	34–7	W	U52
Very close	UCF vs USF 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-17	17–13	L	U62
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	17–14	L	U47
Very close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Very close	SJSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-15.25	27–14	L	U58
Very close	HOU vs USF 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & season form	-17.5	42–27	L	O59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-2
TROY LLLLW	1-4	20%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; TROY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST –UUOO	2-2	50%	3-2
TROY OOUUU	2-3	40%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARSTlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	2-2 50%
TROYlast 5	3-2 60%	1-4 20%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−20.5 →−13.4▲ 7.1#127

TROY0.0 →+0.2▲ 0.2#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ARST

Longer bar = better

TROY

#73

Offense

Even

#83

#120

Defense

TROY better ▶

#40

−0.6 #108

Turnovers

◀ ARST better

−0.8 #122

64 plays #96

Pace

TROY faster ▶

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: TROY defense

	ARST off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #89	23.8 #62	TROY
Yards / play	5.95 #59	4.93 #35	TROY
PPA / play	+0.18 #53	−0.03 #26	TROY
Success rate	40% #90	37% #36	TROY

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: TROY offense

	TROY off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #90	36.4 #129	TROY
Yards / play	6.08 #53	6.26 #116	TROY
PPA / play	+0.10 #80	+0.24 #120	TROY
Success rate	38% #109	46% #116	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	9.6 #19	4.6 #125	14.2 #72	7.0 #58	4.8 #104	11.8 #88
TROY allowed	4.0 #47	9.6 #100	13.6 #80	3.4 #35	6.8 #74	10.2 #48

TROY scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	4.8 #85	8.0 #78	12.8 #90	7.0 #58	6.2 #78	13.2 #74
ARST allowed	7.6 #116	11.6 #122	19.2 #123	9.6 #120	7.6 #93	17.2 #120

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.