Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Coastal Carolina

3-3 · Power #70

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas State

3-3 · Power #107

final

Closing spread

CCU -8.5

✓ CCU W

Total

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

CCU 33–24 ARST

✓ CCU (74%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCCU -8.5

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCCU -8.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCCU -8.5

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CCU as an 8.5-point road favorite at ARST, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CCU won 27–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 59, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 7.9; 59.7 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU @ EMU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-6.5	31–23	W	U59
Very close	M-OH @ OHIO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7	33–35	L	O54.5
Very close	TOL @ OHIO 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	35–23	W	O57.5
Very close	BOIS @ CSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-7.5	30–31	L	O60
Very close	TLSA @ USF 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	32–31	L	O55.75
Very close	FAU @ CLT 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	38–9	W	U58
Close	APP @ GAST 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-10	45–16	W	O54.5
Close	MEM @ TEM 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-11	31–34	L	O58.5
Close	UTSA @ UNT 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-8.5	23–45	L	O59.5
Close	USU @ UNLV 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.25	28–24	L	U64

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CCU WWLLW	4-2	67%	2-1	2-1
ARST LWWWL	3-3	50%	2-1	2-3

Venue/role: CCU away, as favorite; ARST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CCU UOUUU	1-4	20%	3-3
ARST UUOO–	2-2	50%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 47% of games with totals 55–63 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CCUlast 6	3-3 50%	4-2 67%	1-4 20%
ARSTlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CCU−2.7 →−0.7▲ 2.0#67

ARST−20.5 →−14.6▲ 5.9#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CCU

Longer bar = better

ARST

#57

Offense

◀ CCU better

#94

#73

Defense

◀ CCU better

#124

+0.3 #44

Turnovers

◀ CCU better

−0.3 #96

69 plays #50

Pace

◀ CCU faster

63 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CCU has the ball

Advantage: CCU offense

	CCU off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #55	36.5 #129	CCU
Yards / play	6.49 #29	6.60 #130	CCU
PPA / play	+0.14 #63	+0.23 #124	CCU
Success rate	41% #80	45% #113	CCU

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: CCU defense

	ARST off	CCU def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #108	23.7 #59	CCU
Yards / play	5.56 #77	5.93 #95	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #78	+0.07 #62	Even
Success rate	38% #113	42% #74	CCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CCU scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CCU scored	8.7 #23	7.2 #89	15.8 #56	10.3 #10	4.0 #120	14.3 #55
ARST allowed	7.5 #113	11.8 #124	19.3 #125	8.5 #119	8.7 #109	17.2 #123

ARST scoring against the CCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	8.0 #33	3.8 #127	11.8 #103	5.8 #79	4.5 #113	10.3 #108
CCU allowed	3.3 #32	8.5 #90	11.8 #66	5.7 #69	6.2 #65	11.8 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.