UL Monroe @ Georgia Southern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Georgia Southern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F11 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

UL Monroe

2-4 · Power #129

final

Final

Georgia Southern

4-2 · Power #92

▲ winner

Closing spread

GASO -16.5

✓ ULM W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 20–37 GASO

✓ GASO (89%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGASO -16.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGASO -16.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60.5

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–18.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 56% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGASO -16.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GASO as a 16.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GASO won 38–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16.7 against an average line of 16.8; 57.3 points a game (usually 55.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF vs USF 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-17	17–13	L	U62
Very close	SJSU vs UNLV 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-17	34–17	P	U61
Very close	NEV vs UNLV 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-19	51–20	W	O58.25
Very close	SJSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-15.25	27–14	L	U58
Very close	TXST vs ULM 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	21–20	L	U64.5
Very close	LIB vs ULM 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17	40–7	W	U63.5
Very close	DUKE vs KU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.25	52–33	W	O57.5
Very close	UTSA vs UTEP 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	34–31	L	O56.5
Very close	HOU vs USF 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-17.5	42–27	L	O59
Very close	BSU vs CSU 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-14	52–21	W	O62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM LLWLW	3-3	50%	1-1	3-2
GASO WLWWL	3-2-1	60%	2-0-1	3-0-1

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; GASO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM UUO–U	1-3	25%	2-4
GASO OUUUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 47 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULMlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	1-3 25%
GASOlast 6	4-2 67%	3-2-1 60%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM+0.7 →−14.0▼ 14.7#125

GASO+2.5 →−0.1▼ 2.6#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ULM

Longer bar = better

GASO

#109

Offense

GASO better ▶

#47

#110

Defense

GASO better ▶

#91

+1.0 #17

Turnovers

◀ ULM better

−0.5 #110

60 plays #128

Pace

GASO faster ▶

79 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Even matchup

	ULM off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #127	23.7 #58	GASO
Yards / play	5.35 #96	5.88 #90	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #103	+0.18 #103	Even
Success rate	38% #109	45% #111	Even

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: GASO offense

	GASO off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #49	31.8 #114	GASO
Yards / play	5.78 #67	6.00 #100	GASO
PPA / play	+0.19 #47	+0.18 #102	GASO
Success rate	48% #25	47% #123	GASO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	4.7 #96	6.8 #102	11.5 #106	2.5 #127	4.5 #113	7.0 #124
GASO allowed	3.5 #39	7.0 #65	10.5 #46	9.3 #122	3.8 #18	13.2 #82

GASO scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	7.0 #44	11.2 #26	18.2 #31	8.0 #34	5.2 #100	13.2 #69
ULM allowed	6.8 #101	10.7 #116	17.5 #115	5.2 #61	9.2 #113	14.3 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.