Arkansas State @ UL Monroe: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at UL Monroe · Conference game

Weather at kickoff87°F10 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

3-4 · Power #107

▲ winner

Final

UL Monroe

2-5 · Power #129

final

Closing spread

ULM -1

✓ ARST W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 25–27 ULM

✗ ULM (54%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseULM -1

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseULM -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–3 since 2023: won 45%, covered 42% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseULM -1

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ULM as a 1-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 34–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.9 against an average line of 2.2; 52.5 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	28–52	L	O55
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	RICE vs UNT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	24–30	L	U55
Very close	USF vs TEM 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-1.5	34–14	W	U55
Very close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	30–38	L	O52
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	42–24	W	O50.5
Very close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	48–26	W	O55
Very close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	13–17	L	U56.5
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Very close	TXST vs ULM 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	27–19	W	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST WWWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	2-4
ULM LWLWW	4-3	57%	2-2	0-1

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; ULM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST UOO–U	2-3	40%	3-4
ULM UO–UO	2-3	40%	2-5

Went over in Q4. Of 95 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARSTlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	2-3 40%
ULMlast 7	2-5 29%	4-3 57%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARST 26–9 ULM ARST leads · 35 games since 1974 · ULM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−20.5 →−14.5▲ 6.0#126

ULM+0.7 →−13.2▼ 13.9#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ARST

Longer bar = better

ULM

#96

Offense

◀ ARST better

#112

#119

Defense

Even

#108

−0.4 #101

Turnovers

ULM better ▶

+0.9 #19

63 plays #110

Pace

Even

62 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #108	32.7 #117	Even
Yards / play	5.77 #67	5.90 #98	ARST
PPA / play	+0.08 #90	+0.15 #93	Even
Success rate	38% #117	46% #123	Even

When ULM has the ball

Even matchup

	ULM off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	19.9 #117	35.1 #126	Even
Yards / play	5.41 #87	6.52 #129	ULM
PPA / play	0.00 #115	+0.24 #126	Even
Success rate	36% #128	44% #93	ARST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	6.9 #49	3.7 #130	10.6 #111	6.0 #68	4.9 #107	10.9 #99
ULM allowed	6.9 #102	12.6 #131	19.4 #123	4.4 #40	8.9 #110	13.3 #83

ULM scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	5.0 #89	6.9 #94	11.9 #98	2.6 #128	5.4 #101	8.0 #124
ARST allowed	6.9 #102	12.1 #128	19.0 #122	7.3 #108	8.9 #110	16.1 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.