Louisiana @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at South Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

4-3 · Power #87

▲ winner

Final

South Alabama

4-3 · Power #49

final

Closing spread

USA -11.5

✓ UL W

Total

▼ Under · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 22–33 USA

✗ USA (80%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSA -11.5

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUSA -11.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUSA -11.5

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as an 11.5-point home favorite against UL, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: UL won 33–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 53 points stayed under 55, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.4 against an average line of 11; 58.6 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-10	42–40	L	O52
Very close	TENN vs SC 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-10.5	45–20	W	O56.5
Very close	NEV vs SJSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-11.5	27–24	L	U55.5
Very close	OKST vs TCU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-11	63–17	W	O54
Very close	TOL vs CMU 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread	-10.5	24–23	L	U54.5
Very close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-14	43–37	L	O56
Very close	BAY vs KU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-10.5	35–23	W	O56.5
Very close	HOU vs MEM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-9.5	31–13	W	U59.25
Very close	UAB vs MTSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-10	41–14	W	O53
Very close	PSU vs IU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-12.25	24–0	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL WLLWL	2-5	29%	1-2	1-1
USA WLLWW	3-4	43%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; USA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL OOOUU	4-3	57%	4-3
USA UOO–O	3-2	60%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 51% of games with totals 51–59 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULlast 7	4-3 57%	2-5 29%	4-3 57%
USAlast 7	4-3 57%	3-4 43%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL+1.8 →−3.2▼ 5.0#84

USA−6.2 →+6.1▲ 12.3#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

USA

#32

Offense

Even

#29

#84

Defense

USA better ▶

#36

−0.6 #118

Turnovers

USA better ▶

+0.4 #37

64 plays #97

Pace

USA faster ▶

68 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Even matchup

	UL off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #38	19.4 #31	Even
Yards / play	6.61 #20	5.09 #33	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #38	+0.07 #58	Even
Success rate	47% #30	36% #23	Even

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	35.4 #22	27.9 #90	USA
Yards / play	6.57 #23	5.26 #50	USA
PPA / play	+0.29 #16	+0.12 #83	USA
Success rate	44% #53	45% #112	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UL scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.4 #82	10.3 #34	15.7 #54	7.9 #38	9.3 #23	17.1 #21
USA allowed	3.4 #29	7.3 #71	10.7 #46	2.4 #9	6.3 #67	8.7 #22

USA scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	7.4 #37	10.1 #36	17.6 #32	8.3 #29	9.6 #21	17.9 #16
UL allowed	3.9 #36	7.1 #66	11.0 #51	6.9 #96	10.0 #122	16.9 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.