Old Dominion @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at James Madison · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Old Dominion

4-3 · Power #97

final

Final

James Madison

7-0 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -19.5

✓ ODU W

Total

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

ODU 15–34 JMU

✓ JMU (92%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -19.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJMU -19.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–21.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 52% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -19.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 19.5-point home favorite against ODU, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 30–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 48, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 875%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.2 against an average line of 19.6; 51.6 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AFA vs UNLV 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-18.5	48–14	W	O49.5
Very close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Very close	BYU vs WYO 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-21.25	38–24	L	O49.75
Very close	TA&M vs SC 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-19.5	44–14	W	O46
Very close	FLA vs VAN 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-18.5	38–14	W	O51
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	CIN vs NAVY 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-18.5	20–10	L	U43.5
Very close	TCU vs LT 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread	-21.5	52–10	W	O50
Very close	PITT vs GT 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-21.5	21–26	L	P47
Very close	APP vs USA 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-21.5	31–7	W	U51.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ODU W–WWW	5-1	83%	2-1	5-1
JMU WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	4-2

Venue/role: ODU away, as underdog; JMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ODU U–O–U	3-2	60%	4-3
JMU UOOUU	3-4	43%	7-0

Went over in Q3. Of 106 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ODUlast 7	4-3 57%	5-1 83%	3-2 60%
JMUlast 7	7-0 100%	5-2 71%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ODU 2–5 JMU JMU leads · 7 games since 2011 · JMU has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ODU−5.2 →−9.0▼ 3.8#109

JMU+5.1 →+6.8▲ 1.7#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ODU

Longer bar = better

JMU

#95

Offense

JMU better ▶

#51

#54

Defense

JMU better ▶

#13

−0.7 #120

Turnovers

JMU better ▶

+0.7 #24

60 plays #126

Pace

JMU faster ▶

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ODU has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	ODU off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #92	19.3 #26	JMU
Yards / play	5.95 #55	4.70 #15	JMU
PPA / play	−0.01 #122	−0.07 #9	JMU
Success rate	39% #109	31% #2	JMU

When JMU has the ball

Even matchup

	JMU off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	32.4 #40	25.4 #67	JMU
Yards / play	6.11 #48	4.97 #25	ODU
PPA / play	+0.15 #60	+0.04 #43	Even
Success rate	43% #55	43% #80	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ODU scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	2.0 #132	10.7 #30	12.7 #84	6.9 #55	4.6 #113	11.4 #92
JMU allowed	1.0 #2	6.7 #59	7.7 #10	5.7 #72	5.9 #60	11.6 #58

JMU scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	9.7 #11	9.1 #47	18.9 #20	6.9 #55	6.7 #69	13.6 #59
ODU allowed	4.6 #55	6.0 #34	10.6 #46	8.7 #122	6.1 #68	14.9 #100

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.