UTEP @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Wed, Oct 25, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Sam Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

UTEP

2-6 · Power #115

▲ winner

Final

Sam Houston

0-7 · Power #114

final

Closing spread

SHSU -4

✓ UTEP W

Total

38.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 17–21 SHSU

✗ SHSU (62%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSHSU -4

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSHSU -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close38.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 44% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSHSU -4

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SHSU as a 4-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UTEP won 37–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 38.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 4.8; 42.1 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SHSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	27–33	L	O42
Very close	ECU vs CLT 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-6	7–10	L	U39.5
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Very close	BGSU vs AKR 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	41–14	W	O37
Very close	WKU vs FIU 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	38–21	W	O42
Very close	EMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–10	W	U43.5
Close	CSU vs UNM 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.25	17–0	W	U36
Close	SJSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	27–21	W	O40.5
Close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Close	FIU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	14–27	L	U43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP LLLWL	2-6	25%	1-3	1-4
SHSU LPWLL	3-3-1	50%	0-1-1	0-1

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; SHSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP UOUUU	2-6	25%	2-6
SHSU OO–UO	3-2	60%	0-7

Went over in Q3. Of 20 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–42.5, 45% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEPlast 8	2-6 25%	2-6 25%	2-6 25%
SHSUlast 7	0-7 0%	3-3-1 50%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UTEP 4–1 SHSU UTEP leads · 5 games since 1990 · UTEP has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−4.4 →−13.3▼ 8.9#122

SHSU−3.3 →−11.2▼ 7.9#118

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UTEP

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#103

Offense

◀ UTEP better

#132

#103

Defense

SHSU better ▶

#68

−0.8 #121

Turnovers

SHSU better ▶

−0.3 #97

65 plays #85

Pace

Even

64 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: SHSU defense

	UTEP off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #129	25.9 #74	SHSU
Yards / play	5.40 #88	5.51 #69	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #93	+0.10 #73	Even
Success rate	39% #102	40% #54	SHSU

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: UTEP defense

	SHSU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	13.4 #134	26.4 #81	UTEP
Yards / play	4.42 #130	6.29 #122	Even
PPA / play	−0.05 #130	+0.20 #117	Even
Success rate	34% #132	43% #91	UTEP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	5.3 #86	5.1 #119	10.4 #112	2.1 #129	3.9 #122	6.0 #129
SHSU allowed	6.9 #102	7.3 #74	14.1 #86	3.0 #16	5.9 #59	8.9 #25

SHSU scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	4.4 #99	2.4 #133	6.9 #131	2.1 #128	3.4 #127	5.6 #131
UTEP allowed	6.5 #100	6.5 #55	13.0 #79	7.4 #106	6.0 #65	13.4 #86

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.