Florida Atlantic @ Charlotte: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Fri, Oct 27, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Charlotte · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Florida Atlantic

3-4 · Power #105

▲ winner

Final

Charlotte

2-5 · Power #124

final

Closing spread

FAU -3.5

✓ FAU W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

FAU 25–22 CLT

✓ FAU (58%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFAU -3.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFAU -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 45% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFAU -3.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FAU as a 3.5-point road favorite at CLT, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FAU won 38–16; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.4 against an average line of 3.3; 49 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Very close	TOL @ SDSU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	14–17	L	U44.5
Very close	SJSU @ WYO 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	33–16	W	O42.5
Very close	UL @ TXST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-5	41–13	W	O44
Very close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75
Very close	USM @ TXST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	20–14	W	U43
Very close	EMU @ BGSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4	55–24	W	O49.5
Very close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	28–7	W	U49
Very close	NAVY @ CLT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	14–0	W	U44.5
Very close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAU LWLWL	2-5	29%	2-1	0-3
CLT LWWLW	4-3	57%	0-3	4-2

Venue/role: FAU away, as favorite; CLT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAU OU–OU	3-3	50%	3-4
CLT OUUUU	2-5	29%	2-5

Went over in Q3. Of 76 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAUlast 7	3-4 43%	2-5 29%	3-3 50%
CLTlast 7	2-5 29%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FAU−0.2 →−6.9▼ 6.7#99

CLT−0.6 →−9.5▼ 8.9#112

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

FAU

Longer bar = better

CLT

#106

Offense

◀ FAU better

#129

#76

Defense

CLT better ▶

#57

0.0 #70

Turnovers

◀ FAU better

−0.9 #126

69 plays #54

Pace

◀ FAU faster

64 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FAU has the ball

Advantage: CLT defense

	FAU off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #92	22.7 #48	CLT
Yards / play	5.07 #110	5.71 #84	CLT
PPA / play	+0.03 #107	+0.07 #60	CLT
Success rate	38% #113	38% #34	CLT

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: FAU defense

	CLT off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	14.6 #134	25.0 #67	FAU
Yards / play	4.81 #121	5.35 #54	FAU
PPA / play	−0.05 #131	+0.10 #69	FAU
Success rate	35% #131	45% #115	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

FAU scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	7.9 #32	5.9 #111	13.7 #75	5.0 #96	5.4 #96	10.4 #107
CLT allowed	4.4 #52	4.9 #21	9.3 #27	6.0 #76	7.4 #89	13.4 #86

CLT scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	2.4 #128	5.3 #118	7.7 #127	4.0 #110	2.9 #129	6.9 #128
FAU allowed	4.9 #62	10.9 #117	15.7 #105	5.0 #53	4.3 #25	9.3 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.