Charlotte @ Tulsa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Tulsa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F5 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Charlotte

2-6 · Power #124

▲ winner

Final

Tulsa

3-5 · Power #118

final

Closing spread

TLSA -4

✓ CLT W

Total

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

CLT 23–27 TLSA

✗ TLSA (60%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTLSA -4

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTLSA -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Line context

Home favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 44% (58 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTLSA -4

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TLSA as a 4-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CLT won 33–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 48, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.2 against an average line of 3; 51.2 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF vs BGSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–24	L	U44.5
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-5	13–9	L	U48
Very close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	30–38	L	O52
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	42–24	W	O50.5
Very close	CLT vs WKU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	19–37	L	O46.5
Very close	MASS vs UNM 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	31–34	L	O48.5
Very close	BC vs UVA 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–24	L	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLT WWLWL	4-4	50%	4-0	4-3
TLSA WWWLL	3-4-1	43%	1-3	1-2

Venue/role: CLT away, as underdog; TLSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLT UUUUO	3-5	38%	2-6
TLSA UO–UO	3-4	43%	3-5

Went over in Q4. Of 119 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLTlast 8	2-6 25%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%
TLSAlast 8	3-5 38%	3-4-1 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLT 1–0 TLSA CLT leads · 1 game since 2023 · CLT has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLT−0.6 →−10.7▼ 10.1#114

TLSA+3.9 →−11.8▼ 15.7#117

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

CLT

Longer bar = better

TLSA

#130

Offense

TLSA better ▶

#99

#65

Defense

◀ CLT better

#123

−0.6 #118

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #129

66 plays #78

Pace

TLSA faster ▶

70 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLT has the ball

Even matchup

	CLT off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	14.8 #134	35.9 #127	Even
Yards / play	4.67 #126	6.55 #129	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #126	+0.23 #124	Even
Success rate	35% #132	45% #112	Even

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: CLT defense

	TLSA off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #106	24.6 #61	CLT
Yards / play	5.12 #105	5.81 #89	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #106	+0.10 #66	CLT
Success rate	41% #80	39% #43	CLT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CLT scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	2.5 #129	5.0 #122	7.5 #132	4.8 #104	2.5 #131	7.3 #128
TLSA allowed	13.5 #133	7.4 #73	20.9 #131	10.6 #132	4.4 #23	15.0 #104

TLSA scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	2.8 #126	9.1 #45	11.9 #95	3.3 #122	6.9 #65	10.1 #108
CLT allowed	4.8 #54	6.0 #37	10.8 #42	6.5 #86	7.4 #87	13.9 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.