UTSA @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at North Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F11 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

UTSA

5-3 · Power #56

▲ winner

Final

North Texas

3-5 · Power #103

final

Closing spread

UTSA -8

Push

Total

▼ Under · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 37–29 UNT

✓ UTSA (70%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -8

Total70

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUTSA -8

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close70

Line context

Road favorites of 6–10 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (57 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -8

Total70

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as an 8-point road favorite at UNT, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 37–29; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 66 points stayed under 70, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 7.5; 61.4 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP @ GASO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	48–51	L	O66
Very close	MEM @ UNT 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	45–42	L	O69.5
Very close	WMU @ EMU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	21–22	L	U66
Close	OU @ WVU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	20–23	L	U68.5
Close	HOU @ MEM 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–30	L	U64.5
Close	WKU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	35–17	W	U67.5
Close	MEM @ UAB 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	45–21	W	O62
Close	BYU @ USU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-8.5	34–20	W	U65.75
Close	FLA @ MIZ 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-9	23–24	L	U69
Close	BYU @ USC 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	35–31	L	O65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA LWWWL	3-5	38%	2-2	3-4
UNT LWWWW	5-3	63%	2-2	4-0

Venue/role: UTSA away, as favorite; UNT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA P–UUO	2-4-1	33%	5-3
UNT O–UUO	4-2	67%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 23. 39% of games with totals 66–74 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSAlast 8	5-3 63%	3-5 38%	2-4-1 33%
UNTlast 8	3-5 38%	5-3 63%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA+0.7 →−0.9▼ 1.6#68

UNT−15.5 →−7.3▲ 8.2#102

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UTSA

Longer bar = better

UNT

#65

Offense

UNT better ▶

#30

#51

Defense

◀ UTSA better

#129

−0.5 #111

Turnovers

UNT better ▶

+0.1 #60

72 plays #22

Pace

Even

74 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: UTSA offense

	UTSA off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #54	36.6 #129	UTSA
Yards / play	5.69 #68	6.51 #128	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.12 #74	+0.24 #126	UTSA
Success rate	42% #64	50% #132	UTSA

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #19	25.4 #65	UNT
Yards / play	6.56 #22	5.07 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #37	+0.09 #62	UNT
Success rate	45% #41	39% #46	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	7.4 #37	9.4 #44	16.8 #41	6.8 #57	7.0 #61	13.8 #59
UNT allowed	7.0 #105	13.0 #131	20.0 #128	7.1 #98	9.5 #117	16.6 #117

UNT scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	9.4 #13	8.0 #70	17.4 #34	8.4 #25	9.8 #18	18.1 #12
UTSA allowed	10.4 #128	6.5 #54	16.9 #113	3.0 #10	5.5 #49	8.5 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.