North Texas @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Fri, Nov 10, 2023, 9:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at SMU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

North Texas

3-6 · Power #103

final

Final

SMU

7-2 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -20

✓ SMU W

Total

66.5

▼ Under · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 23–44 SMU

✓ SMU (93%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -20

Total66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSMU -20

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close66.5

Line context

Home favorites of 18–22 since 2023: won 93%, covered 48% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -20

Total66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 20-point home favorite against UNT, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 45–21; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 66 points stayed under 66.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.6 against an average line of 19; 57.8 points a game (usually 55.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-17.75	45–20	W	U67.75
Very close	APP vs GAST 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-18	17–13	L	U63
Very close	TULN vs UNT 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-20	35–28	L	U63.5
Close	SMU vs USF 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-21.25	41–17	W	U68.5
Close	KSU vs HOU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	41–0	W	U60.5
Close	ORE vs STAN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	45–27	W	O63
Close	LIB vs MTSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-20	41–13	W	U58.75
Close	OU vs TTU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-19	52–21	W	O67
Close	UNC vs FSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	25–35	L	U64.5
Close	MISS vs TLSA 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-21	35–27	L	U66.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT WWWWP	5-3-1	63%	3-1	4-0-1
SMU LWWWL	5-4	56%	3-1	5-2

Venue/role: UNT away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT –UUOU	4-3	57%	3-6
SMU UUOOO	4-4	50%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 43% of games with totals 62.5–70.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNTlast 9	3-6 33%	5-3-1 63%	4-3 57%
SMUlast 9	7-2 78%	5-4 56%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−15.5 →−8.1▲ 7.4#104

SMU+10.7 →+10.6▼ 0.1#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

UNT

Longer bar = better

SMU

#33

Offense

Even

#37

#130

Defense

SMU better ▶

−0.2 #87

Turnovers

SMU better ▶

+0.2 #49

74 plays #12

Pace

Even

73 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	UNT off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #24	15.9 #10	Even
Yards / play	6.50 #25	4.23 #5	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #46	−0.09 #6	SMU
Success rate	45% #37	33% #5	SMU

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #7	36.7 #131	SMU
Yards / play	6.36 #33	6.40 #128	SMU
PPA / play	+0.20 #40	+0.25 #128	SMU
Success rate	42% #67	48% #132	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	8.3 #21	8.6 #60	16.9 #35	7.4 #39	10.4 #8	17.9 #13
SMU allowed	2.7 #13	4.6 #17	7.2 #7	3.7 #24	5.0 #35	8.7 #17

SMU scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	13.1 #1	11.0 #22	24.1 #4	7.9 #31	8.0 #35	15.9 #30
UNT allowed	7.3 #108	13.4 #132	20.8 #133	6.7 #92	9.2 #111	15.9 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.