East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Florida Atlantic · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

East Carolina

1-8 · Power #110

▲ winner

Final

Florida Atlantic

4-5 · Power #105

final

Closing spread

FAU -7.5

✓ ECU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 19–26 FAU

✗ FAU (69%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFAU -7.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFAU -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 52% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFAU -7.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FAU as a 7.5-point home favorite against ECU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ECU won 22–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.7 against an average line of 7.4; 39.9 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ILL vs NU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	47–14	W	O44.5
Very close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	10–16	L	U44
Very close	M-OH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	27–0	W	U43
Very close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Very close	NIU vs BGSU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-9	34–26	L	O44.75
Very close	MINN vs MSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	27–12	W	U41

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU LLLWW	4-5	44%	2-2	3-4
FAU LWLWL	3-6	33%	0-4	1-3

Venue/role: ECU away, as underdog; FAU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU UUUOU	3-6	33%	1-8
FAU –OUOO	5-3	63%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 52% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECUlast 9	1-8 11%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%
FAUlast 9	4-5 44%	3-6 33%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ECU 4–0 FAU ECU leads · 4 games since 2013 · ECU has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU−10.0 →−9.0▲ 1.0#110

FAU−0.2 →−6.4▼ 6.2#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ECU

Longer bar = better

FAU

#134

Offense

FAU better ▶

#86

#54

Defense

◀ ECU better

#82

+0.1 #58

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #70

66 plays #82

Pace

FAU faster ▶

68 plays #60

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: FAU defense

	ECU off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #129	26.2 #73	FAU
Yards / play	4.23 #135	5.50 #63	FAU
PPA / play	−0.10 #136	+0.13 #83	FAU
Success rate	33% #135	44% #108	FAU

When FAU has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	FAU off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #69	24.8 #65	Even
Yards / play	5.39 #88	5.51 #65	ECU
PPA / play	+0.07 #91	+0.12 #79	Even
Success rate	40% #94	34% #8	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	5.6 #77	5.9 #108	11.4 #99	1.9 #131	4.3 #127	6.2 #131
FAU allowed	4.9 #53	11.1 #127	16.0 #107	5.8 #67	4.4 #22	10.2 #37

FAU scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	6.9 #45	7.7 #73	14.6 #66	6.6 #59	6.6 #76	13.1 #67
ECU allowed	5.7 #74	7.3 #70	13.0 #71	4.9 #53	6.9 #80	11.8 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.