Michigan State @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Weather at kickoff35°F5 mphgusts 13DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Michigan State

2-5 · Power #98

final

Final

Minnesota

4-3 · Power #79

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -6.5

✓ MINN W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 19–26 MINN

✓ MINN (69%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -6.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMINN -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41.5

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 57% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -6.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 6.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 27–12; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.9 against an average line of 5.8; 40.7 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ILL vs NU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	47–14	W	O44.5
Very close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Very close	IU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	3–38	L	U42.5
Very close	BOIS vs SDSU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	35–13	W	O38
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	10–16	L	U44
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Very close	ILL vs NEB 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	7–20	L	U42
Very close	ECU vs CLT 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	7–10	L	U39.5
Very close	IOWA vs MSU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	49–7	W	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU LLPWL	3-3-1	50%	1-0-1	1-3-1
MINN LLWLW	2-5	29%	1-3	1-3

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; MINN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU UUOOO	4-2	67%	2-5
MINN UOO–U	2-3	40%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 23. 56% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSUlast 7	2-5 29%	3-3-1 50%	4-2 67%
MINNlast 7	4-3 57%	2-5 29%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU+7.2 →−5.2▼ 12.4#93

MINN−0.1 →−0.4▼ 0.3#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MSU

Longer bar = better

MINN

#118

Offense

Even

#112

#79

Defense

Even

#68

−1.1 #131

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+0.7 #23

67 plays #76

Pace

◀ MSU faster

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	MSU off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #121	24.3 #62	MINN
Yards / play	4.89 #117	5.65 #77	MINN
PPA / play	−0.11 #135	+0.08 #61	MINN
Success rate	40% #100	42% #71	MINN

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: MSU defense

	MINN off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #115	27.9 #89	MSU
Yards / play	4.69 #125	5.49 #67	MSU
PPA / play	+0.03 #106	+0.11 #78	MSU
Success rate	39% #103	42% #83	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	2.4 #129	5.6 #115	8.0 #127	6.9 #54	4.0 #121	10.9 #100
MINN allowed	3.9 #38	8.3 #90	12.1 #65	4.9 #46	6.4 #73	11.3 #54

MINN scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	2.9 #124	7.7 #77	10.6 #110	4.7 #103	4.6 #112	9.3 #117
MSU allowed	5.9 #84	9.4 #103	15.3 #102	3.3 #20	9.3 #115	12.6 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.