Maryland @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Northwestern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F12 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Maryland

5-2 · Power #27

final

Final

Northwestern

3-4 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

MD -14

✓ NU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 31–18 NU

✗ MD (83%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMD -14

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMD -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMD -14

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MD as a 14-point road favorite at NU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NU won 33–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 13.2; 63.4 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU @ ECU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & season form	-11.5	31–10	W	U49
Very close	DUKE @ BC 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-12	38–31	L	O47.25
Very close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Very close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Close	LOU @ BC 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-13.5	33–34	L	O48.25
Close	UAB @ LT 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-12.75	34–37	L	O47
Close	OKST @ KSU 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-14	20–18	L	U48.5
Close	UK @ VAN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-13.5	45–28	W	O50
Close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD WWWLL	3-4	43%	1-1	3-3
NU LWLLW	3-4	43%	2-2	2-3

Venue/role: MD away, as favorite; NU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD OUO–O	4-2	67%	5-2
NU OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 99 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MDlast 7	5-2 71%	3-4 43%	4-2 67%
NUlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+3.0 →+7.3▲ 4.3#29

NU−3.1 →−5.6▼ 2.5#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

#38

Offense

◀ MD better

#114

#33

Defense

◀ MD better

#79

+1.0 #13

Turnovers

◀ MD better

+0.1 #63

68 plays #59

Pace

◀ MD faster

66 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Advantage: MD offense

	MD off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #36	25.9 #74	MD
Yards / play	6.17 #46	5.33 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #26	+0.17 #99	MD
Success rate	45% #42	43% #90	MD

When NU has the ball

Advantage: MD defense

	NU off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #116	18.6 #21	MD
Yards / play	4.54 #128	5.02 #29	MD
PPA / play	+0.03 #105	−0.01 #27	MD
Success rate	39% #108	40% #53	MD

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MD scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	10.0 #10	7.6 #82	17.6 #33	6.6 #60	9.3 #23	15.9 #35
NU allowed	4.9 #63	7.3 #71	12.1 #68	7.4 #107	5.9 #59	13.3 #80

NU scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	3.1 #118	4.4 #122	7.6 #128	4.4 #104	7.3 #53	11.7 #88
MD allowed	5.4 #77	3.3 #7	8.7 #17	4.1 #37	5.7 #55	9.9 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.