Northwestern @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Northwestern

3-3 · Power #65

final

Final

Nebraska

3-3 · Power #62

▲ winner

Closing spread

NEB -10.5

✓ NU W

Total

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

NU 15–25 NEB

✓ NEB (77%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNEB -10.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNEB -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNEB -10.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 10.5-point home favorite against NU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NEB won 17–9; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 40, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.3 against an average line of 10.7; 45.3 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MSU vs RUTG 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-10	27–21	L	O41
Close	IOWA vs NU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-11.5	33–13	W	O37.5
Close	IOWA vs ILL 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-12	33–23	L	O38.25
Close	IOWA vs MSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-12	26–16	L	O36.5
Close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Close	TLSA vs NAVY 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-11	17–20	L	U46
Close	UTAH vs CAL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	34–14	W	O43
Close	UAB vs WKU 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-11.5	37–14	W	O44
Close	FRES vs SDSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.75	32–28	L	O44.5
Close	MRSH vs UL 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	13–23	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU WLWLL	2-4	33%	0-2	1-3
NEB LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: NU away, as underdog; NEB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU OOOOU	4-2	67%	3-3
NEB UOUO–	2-2	50%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 58% of games with totals 36–44 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NUlast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%
NEBlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU−3.1 →−6.0▼ 2.9#95

NEB+0.1 →+0.5▲ 0.4#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

NEB

#108

Offense

Even

#101

#89

Defense

NEB better ▶

#44

0.0 #73

Turnovers

◀ NU better

−1.2 #132

67 plays #77

Pace

◀ NU faster

62 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	NU off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #110	21.0 #44	NEB
Yards / play	4.61 #127	4.76 #20	NEB
PPA / play	+0.06 #101	+0.08 #64	NEB
Success rate	40% #95	39% #46	NEB

When NEB has the ball

Even matchup

	NEB off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #123	27.3 #82	NU
Yards / play	5.52 #79	5.46 #61	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #115	+0.20 #113	Even
Success rate	41% #87	44% #99	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NU scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	3.2 #118	4.7 #122	7.8 #126	5.2 #88	8.0 #42	13.2 #69
NEB allowed	2.8 #19	7.3 #78	10.2 #39	2.8 #13	8.0 #99	10.8 #51

NEB scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	1.7 #133	4.7 #122	6.3 #132	5.2 #88	7.5 #50	12.7 #79
NU allowed	5.2 #71	7.3 #78	12.5 #67	8.7 #117	5.7 #55	14.3 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.