Penn State @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Penn State

6-0 · Power #5

final

Final

Ohio State

6-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -4

✓ OSU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 23–27 OSU

✓ OSU (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -4

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOSU -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 45% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOSU -4

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 4-point home favorite against PSU, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 20–12; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

8 of 989%

Above normal · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.6 against an average line of 4.9; 51.2 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Close	ISU vs BAY 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–31	L	O45
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Close	ORST vs UTAH 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	21–7	W	U44.5
Close	UTAH vs UCLA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–7	W	U51
Close	UGA vs AUB 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	27–6	W	U44.5
Close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Close	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-7	41–17	W	O48.75
Loose	OKST vs OU 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread & rest	-4	37–33	P	O49.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU WWWWW	6-0	100%	2-0	—
OSU LWPWW	3-2-1	60%	2-1	3-2-1

Venue/role: PSU away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU OUUOO	3-2	60%	6-0
OSU UOU–U	1-4	20%	6-0

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 57% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSUlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	3-2 60%
OSUlast 6	6-0 100%	3-2-1 60%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+6.6 →+19.3▲ 12.7#6

OSU+8.6 →+20.3▲ 11.7#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

PSU

Longer bar = better

OSU

#30

Offense

OSU better ▶

#15

Defense

Even

#13

+1.7 #2

Turnovers

◀ PSU better

+0.3 #40

77 plays #5

Pace

◀ PSU faster

64 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Even matchup

	PSU off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	44.3 #6	9.7 #3	Even
Yards / play	5.53 #78	4.01 #2	OSU
PPA / play	+0.26 #25	−0.03 #18	Even
Success rate	51% #10	37% #28	Even

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #22	8.0 #2	Even
Yards / play	6.94 #14	3.42 #1	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #6	−0.19 #2	Even
Success rate	49% #18	29% #2	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	6.7 #54	12.2 #16	18.8 #25	14.5 #1	11.0 #7	25.5 #1
OSU allowed	2.8 #20	2.2 #2	5.0 #2	2.3 #10	2.3 #5	4.7 #5

OSU scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	6.8 #49	12.0 #17	18.8 #25	9.2 #20	8.0 #43	17.2 #24
PSU allowed	1.7 #6	3.5 #10	5.2 #4	0.0 #1	2.8 #8	2.8 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.